2023考研英語閱讀世界經濟
The worldeconomy;Mountains to climb
世界經濟;任重而道遠
August was a nerve-racking month for the worldeconomy. September and October will be no better
對世界經濟來說，八月是傷腦筋的一個月，而九月和十月經濟形勢也不見得好轉。
Central bankers are not known for seeking solacein the heavens. But at their annual symposium inJackson Hole, organised by the Federal ReserveBank of Kansas City, the worlds leading monetarymavens could be found, after dinner, peering enthusiastically into telescopes set up by thelocal astronomy club. As he spied the M82 galaxy, 12m light-years away, one centralbanker remarked: That puts our problems into perspective.
央行行長不是因向天空尋求安慰而出名，但是由堪薩斯城美聯儲組織召開的杰克遜霍爾年度研討會上，世界首席貨幣專家們在晚宴后，通過當地天文學俱樂部設置的望遠鏡滿腔熱情地凝望著天空。一位央行行長在找到離地球1200萬光年的M82星系時說：這讓我們全面看到我們的問題。
On the ground, though, those problems are as big as ever. Christine Lagarde, the newmanaging director of the IMF, voiced a collective sentiment when she said the worldeconomy found itself in a dangerous new phase. Things could get riskier still in the comingweeks.
盡管研討會當場，那些問題像原來一樣嚴重，當國際貨幣基金組織新總裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德認為世界經濟處于危險的新階段，她說出了集體的觀點。在接下來的幾周，經濟形勢有可能會更加危險。
In America, the worry is dashed expectations. The Federal Reserves policy-settingcommittee next meets on September 20th and 21st and has scheduled an extra daysdiscussion on its arsenal of unconventional monetary weapons. Wall Street hopes it willmark the onset of QE3, another big bout of bond-buying. The mood in Jackson Holesuggested that any action will be modest and incremental.
在美國，對經濟前景的擔憂擊垮了人們的期望。美聯儲政策制定委員會下一次的會議原定于9月20、21日召開，現會期額外增加一天，用于討論其非常規的貨幣武器。華爾街希望這標志著再一次大量購買國債的第三輪量化寬松政策的啟動。杰克遜霍爾的氣氛表明任何措施將會是適度的、遞增的。
Many central bankers, including Ben Bernanke, the Feds chairman, think it is time for fiscalpolicy to do more. He gave Congress a scolding at Jackson Hole, arguing that politicians needto address the medium-term fiscal mess while leaving room to cushion the economy now.Barack Obama is working on a jobs plan but the chances of a political rapprochement onissues like Americas payroll-tax cut, due to expire soon, remain uncertain. No deal impliessharply tighter fiscal policy.
包括美聯儲主席本伯南克在內的很多央行行長認為，到了財政政策發揮更大作用的時候了。伯南克在杰克遜霍爾大會上大肆責罵國會，認為政客們應該集中精力解決中期的財政混亂，同時給目前的經濟留下緩沖的空間。奧巴馬總統正著手于一項就業計劃，但是在即將到期的美國減少工資稅等問題上兩黨達成協議可能性仍然不確定。沒有達成協議意味著更緊的財政政策。
Far more serious danger lies in Europe. Policymakers there put great faith in an agreementthey struck on July 21st, which promised more money for Greece as well as more resourcesand a broader remit for the European Financial Stability Facility . That expanded role isdue to be ratified by euro-zone parliaments in the next few weeks. The European CentralBank regards its recent decision to buy Spanish and Italian bonds as a stopgap untilthe expanded EFSF is up and running.
歐洲則面臨更加嚴重的危險。歐洲決策者極大地相信于7月21日緊急達成的協議，該協議保證為希臘提供更多的資金，同時也保證給予歐洲金融穩定機構更多的資源和更大的借貸范圍。其擴大的范圍應該在隨后的數周內經過歐元區議會批準。在歐洲金融穩定機構借貸范圍擴大并運轉之前，歐洲中央銀行將其最近購買西班牙和意大利國債的決定視為權宜之計。
But three shadows hang over the EFSF. First, the political timetable for its ratification couldslip. Potential causes include Finnish demands for collateral against its contribution to theGreek bail-out and a vote by Germanys constitutional court, due on September 7th, on thelegality of the rescue package .
但是，歐洲金融穩定機構面臨著三大障礙。第一，其借貸范圍擴大得到批準的政治時間表有可能一拖再拖，可能的原因包括芬蘭要求其對希臘緊急救助進行抵押，以及定于9月7日由德國憲法法院對其一攬子救援計劃的合法性進行投票。
Second, there is growing confusion about what the revamped rescue fund should do.Europes central bankers are desperate for it to take over the bond-buying duties if marketsstay skittish over Italy and Spain. Ms Lagarde is pushing another priority. She thinksEuropes banks urgently need more capital to cut the chains of contagion and wants amandatory recapitalisation, using public funds if necessary and the EFSF in particular. Ineffect, the IMF wants a repeat of what Americas Treasury did in 2008, when it bullied bigbanks into taking capital injections.
第二，對于如何使用修訂后的儲備金的疑問越來越多。如果意大利和西班牙的市場保持活躍的話，歐洲的央行行長極度渴望歐洲金融穩定機構能夠承擔起購買國債的重擔。拉加德正敦促優先考慮另一件事。她認為歐洲的銀行急切需要更多的資金來阻斷金融危機蔓延的趨勢，而且需要對銀行進行一次強制的資本重組，如果必要的話將使用公共基金，以及尤其是歐洲金融穩定機構提供的基金。實際上，國際貨幣基金組織想要重復2008年美國財政部的措施，當時美國財政部迫使大型銀行注入資金。
Many Europeans were furious at Ms Lagardes comments, denying any serious capitalshortage and arguing instead that if there is a problem, it is one of attracting funding fromskittish wholesale markets. Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECBs president, tried to damp downeven that concern, pointing out that banks could tap unlimited liquidity at the ECB and thatthey had ample collateral left to post in return.
很多歐洲人對拉加德的評論大為光火，他們否認存在任何嚴重的資本短缺，同時爭論如果存在問題的話，那也是如何從活躍的批發市場吸引資金的問題。歐洲中央銀行行長讓克羅德特里謝試圖消除這樣的擔心，他指出各銀行能夠從歐洲中央銀行取得無限制的流動資金，反過來，歐洲中央銀行則可以獲得足夠的保證金。
Mr Trichet is right, but only up to a point. The sheer scale of European banks funding needs is daunting: an ideafrom Morgan Stanley, to use the EFSF to offer European guarantees on new bank debt, hasgained traction recently. And illiquidity is a symptom of concerns about solvency. So MsLagarde is right that strengthening banks buffers is important. The July stress tests, whichdid not allow for sovereign defaults, offer scant guidance. Using the market price ofsovereign bonds, the IMF thinks that European banks could have unrecognised losses ofEuro200 billion, meaning lots more capital would be needed. The EFSF is one sensiblesource.
特里謝說的沒錯，但也不完全如此。歐洲各銀行的基金需求的絕對規模讓人瞠目：摩根史坦利的想法是用歐洲金融穩定機構在新的銀行債務上作為歐洲擔保，最近該想法獲得青睞。而且非流動性是對償還能力擔心的一個特征。因此，拉加德認為加強銀行的緩沖是非常重要，這樣的觀點是正確的。7月份的壓力測試，因為沒有考慮到主權違約，缺乏指導意義。國際國幣基金組織認為，如果采用國債的市場價格，歐洲銀行看不到的損失將達到二千億歐元，這意味著需要更多的資金。歐洲金融穩定機構則是一個明智的資金來源。
The third and biggest reason to worry is that the EFSF is too small. The fund is beingincreased to Euro440 billion. But subtract the money already committed to bail-outs aswell as the extra Greece might need if voluntary private debt-restructuring falls short , and only around Euro 200 billion may be left. At the ECBs current pace ofbond-buying , that will not last long, especially if some isalso set aside for banks.
第三，也是最主要的原因，歐洲金融穩定機構規模太小。基金已經增長到4400億歐元。但是減去已經用于應急措施的資金，以及如果自愿的私有債務重組資金短缺時希臘可能需要額外的資金，那么大概只剩2000億歐元。在目前歐洲中央銀行購買國債的速度下，這筆資金將不會維持很長時間，特別是其中有些是為銀行留著的。
European politicians are unlikely to cough up more, so much discussion behind the scenes isabout how to lever up the rescue facility. Daniel Gros of the Centre for European PolicyStudies and Thomas Mayer of Deutsche Bank think the EFSF should be registered as a bankand allowed to borrow from the ECB, using the government bonds it buys as collateral. Thatkind of arms-length arrangement, they argue, would be much better than having the ECBbuy bonds itself, and would give the EFSF huge firepower. Conservative central bankersworry that it would still break the rule that bans direct purchases by the ECB, in spirit at least.
歐洲政客不愿意被迫支付更多，秘密地討論如何抬高救援額度。歐洲政策研究中心的丹尼爾格羅斯和德意志銀行的托馬斯梅耶爾認為，歐洲金融穩定機構應該以銀行資質進行注冊并且能夠將其購買的國債作為抵押從歐洲中央銀行貸款。他們認為，這種保持距離的安排將比歐洲中央銀行自己購買國債要好很多，而且將給予歐洲金融穩定機構更大的能力。保守的央行行長們擔心這仍將會破壞禁止歐洲中央銀行直接購買債券的規定，至少在精神上破壞了規矩。
An alternative, quietly touted by some North American officials, is to tempt investors intobuying bonds by giving them access to non-recourse loans from the ECB. The model isanother American innovation from the financial crisisthe Term Asset-Backed SecuritiesLoan Facility, or TALF. Soft loans from the Fed were designed to tempt investors into buyingsecurities; the Treasury promised to take the first tranche of any losses, thus protecting theFed. In a European version, cheap, non-recourse loans would encourage investors to buyItalian or Spanish bonds and bring down yields. The ECB would provide leverage, but anyinitial losses would be borne by the EFSF. The facilitys resources would be magnified,private investors would be drawn in and the price of bonds would still be set by the market.
還有種方式，一些北美洲的官員私底下大肆吹捧，就是通過讓投資者得到歐洲中央銀行的無追索權貸款來引誘他們購買債券。該模式是美國在金融危機中的另一項創新定期資產支持證券貸款工具。美聯儲提供的軟貸款計劃用于引誘投資者購買證券。財政部許諾如果出現任何虧損將承擔第一筆款項，從而保護美聯儲。在歐洲，低價、無追索權貸款將會鼓勵投資者購買意大利或西班牙債券，而且減少收益。歐洲中央銀行將會提供杠桿，但是任何前期損失將由歐洲金融穩定機構來承擔。歐洲金融穩定機構的資源將擴大，私人投資者將被引誘進行投資，而且債券價格仍然由市場決定。
Dusting off Americas crisis-management ideas makes sense: they were effective. ButEuropes task is far harder, not just because there are many more parties involved butbecause the end goal is so unclear. American officials were battling the temporary collapseof a financial system. European politicians need to create a new one, either with a moreintegrated fiscal union or a break-up of the current euro area. Without political leadership,the technocrats cannot solve the problem.
復制美國的金融危機管理理念是說得通的，因為它們有效。但是，歐洲的任務更加艱巨，不僅僅是因為歐洲牽涉的黨派較多，而是因為最終的目的還不明確。美國官員為了金融系統的臨時崩潰而戰斗。歐洲官員需要通過創建一個更加和諧的財政聯盟，亦或將目前的歐元區分開來創造一個新的金融系統。沒有政治領導，技術專家將無法解決這個問題。
The worldeconomy;Mountains to climb
世界經濟;任重而道遠
August was a nerve-racking month for the worldeconomy. September and October will be no better
對世界經濟來說，八月是傷腦筋的一個月，而九月和十月經濟形勢也不見得好轉。
Central bankers are not known for seeking solacein the heavens. But at their annual symposium inJackson Hole, organised by the Federal ReserveBank of Kansas City, the worlds leading monetarymavens could be found, after dinner, peering enthusiastically into telescopes set up by thelocal astronomy club. As he spied the M82 galaxy, 12m light-years away, one centralbanker remarked: That puts our problems into perspective.
央行行長不是因向天空尋求安慰而出名，但是由堪薩斯城美聯儲組織召開的杰克遜霍爾年度研討會上，世界首席貨幣專家們在晚宴后，通過當地天文學俱樂部設置的望遠鏡滿腔熱情地凝望著天空。一位央行行長在找到離地球1200萬光年的M82星系時說：這讓我們全面看到我們的問題。
On the ground, though, those problems are as big as ever. Christine Lagarde, the newmanaging director of the IMF, voiced a collective sentiment when she said the worldeconomy found itself in a dangerous new phase. Things could get riskier still in the comingweeks.
盡管研討會當場，那些問題像原來一樣嚴重，當國際貨幣基金組織新總裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德認為世界經濟處于危險的新階段，她說出了集體的觀點。在接下來的幾周，經濟形勢有可能會更加危險。
In America, the worry is dashed expectations. The Federal Reserves policy-settingcommittee next meets on September 20th and 21st and has scheduled an extra daysdiscussion on its arsenal of unconventional monetary weapons. Wall Street hopes it willmark the onset of QE3, another big bout of bond-buying. The mood in Jackson Holesuggested that any action will be modest and incremental.
在美國，對經濟前景的擔憂擊垮了人們的期望。美聯儲政策制定委員會下一次的會議原定于9月20、21日召開，現會期額外增加一天，用于討論其非常規的貨幣武器。華爾街希望這標志著再一次大量購買國債的第三輪量化寬松政策的啟動。杰克遜霍爾的氣氛表明任何措施將會是適度的、遞增的。
Many central bankers, including Ben Bernanke, the Feds chairman, think it is time for fiscalpolicy to do more. He gave Congress a scolding at Jackson Hole, arguing that politicians needto address the medium-term fiscal mess while leaving room to cushion the economy now.Barack Obama is working on a jobs plan but the chances of a political rapprochement onissues like Americas payroll-tax cut, due to expire soon, remain uncertain. No deal impliessharply tighter fiscal policy.
包括美聯儲主席本伯南克在內的很多央行行長認為，到了財政政策發揮更大作用的時候了。伯南克在杰克遜霍爾大會上大肆責罵國會，認為政客們應該集中精力解決中期的財政混亂，同時給目前的經濟留下緩沖的空間。奧巴馬總統正著手于一項就業計劃，但是在即將到期的美國減少工資稅等問題上兩黨達成協議可能性仍然不確定。沒有達成協議意味著更緊的財政政策。
Far more serious danger lies in Europe. Policymakers there put great faith in an agreementthey struck on July 21st, which promised more money for Greece as well as more resourcesand a broader remit for the European Financial Stability Facility . That expanded role isdue to be ratified by euro-zone parliaments in the next few weeks. The European CentralBank regards its recent decision to buy Spanish and Italian bonds as a stopgap untilthe expanded EFSF is up and running.
歐洲則面臨更加嚴重的危險。歐洲決策者極大地相信于7月21日緊急達成的協議，該協議保證為希臘提供更多的資金，同時也保證給予歐洲金融穩定機構更多的資源和更大的借貸范圍。其擴大的范圍應該在隨后的數周內經過歐元區議會批準。在歐洲金融穩定機構借貸范圍擴大并運轉之前，歐洲中央銀行將其最近購買西班牙和意大利國債的決定視為權宜之計。
But three shadows hang over the EFSF. First, the political timetable for its ratification couldslip. Potential causes include Finnish demands for collateral against its contribution to theGreek bail-out and a vote by Germanys constitutional court, due on September 7th, on thelegality of the rescue package .
但是，歐洲金融穩定機構面臨著三大障礙。第一，其借貸范圍擴大得到批準的政治時間表有可能一拖再拖，可能的原因包括芬蘭要求其對希臘緊急救助進行抵押，以及定于9月7日由德國憲法法院對其一攬子救援計劃的合法性進行投票。
Second, there is growing confusion about what the revamped rescue fund should do.Europes central bankers are desperate for it to take over the bond-buying duties if marketsstay skittish over Italy and Spain. Ms Lagarde is pushing another priority. She thinksEuropes banks urgently need more capital to cut the chains of contagion and wants amandatory recapitalisation, using public funds if necessary and the EFSF in particular. Ineffect, the IMF wants a repeat of what Americas Treasury did in 2008, when it bullied bigbanks into taking capital injections.
第二，對于如何使用修訂后的儲備金的疑問越來越多。如果意大利和西班牙的市場保持活躍的話，歐洲的央行行長極度渴望歐洲金融穩定機構能夠承擔起購買國債的重擔。拉加德正敦促優先考慮另一件事。她認為歐洲的銀行急切需要更多的資金來阻斷金融危機蔓延的趨勢，而且需要對銀行進行一次強制的資本重組，如果必要的話將使用公共基金，以及尤其是歐洲金融穩定機構提供的基金。實際上，國際貨幣基金組織想要重復2008年美國財政部的措施，當時美國財政部迫使大型銀行注入資金。
Many Europeans were furious at Ms Lagardes comments, denying any serious capitalshortage and arguing instead that if there is a problem, it is one of attracting funding fromskittish wholesale markets. Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECBs president, tried to damp downeven that concern, pointing out that banks could tap unlimited liquidity at the ECB and thatthey had ample collateral left to post in return.
很多歐洲人對拉加德的評論大為光火，他們否認存在任何嚴重的資本短缺，同時爭論如果存在問題的話，那也是如何從活躍的批發市場吸引資金的問題。歐洲中央銀行行長讓克羅德特里謝試圖消除這樣的擔心，他指出各銀行能夠從歐洲中央銀行取得無限制的流動資金，反過來，歐洲中央銀行則可以獲得足夠的保證金。
Mr Trichet is right, but only up to a point. The sheer scale of European banks funding needs is daunting: an ideafrom Morgan Stanley, to use the EFSF to offer European guarantees on new bank debt, hasgained traction recently. And illiquidity is a symptom of concerns about solvency. So MsLagarde is right that strengthening banks buffers is important. The July stress tests, whichdid not allow for sovereign defaults, offer scant guidance. Using the market price ofsovereign bonds, the IMF thinks that European banks could have unrecognised losses ofEuro200 billion, meaning lots more capital would be needed. The EFSF is one sensiblesource.
特里謝說的沒錯，但也不完全如此。歐洲各銀行的基金需求的絕對規模讓人瞠目：摩根史坦利的想法是用歐洲金融穩定機構在新的銀行債務上作為歐洲擔保，最近該想法獲得青睞。而且非流動性是對償還能力擔心的一個特征。因此，拉加德認為加強銀行的緩沖是非常重要，這樣的觀點是正確的。7月份的壓力測試，因為沒有考慮到主權違約，缺乏指導意義。國際國幣基金組織認為，如果采用國債的市場價格，歐洲銀行看不到的損失將達到二千億歐元，這意味著需要更多的資金。歐洲金融穩定機構則是一個明智的資金來源。
The third and biggest reason to worry is that the EFSF is too small. The fund is beingincreased to Euro440 billion. But subtract the money already committed to bail-outs aswell as the extra Greece might need if voluntary private debt-restructuring falls short , and only around Euro 200 billion may be left. At the ECBs current pace ofbond-buying , that will not last long, especially if some isalso set aside for banks.
第三，也是最主要的原因，歐洲金融穩定機構規模太小。基金已經增長到4400億歐元。但是減去已經用于應急措施的資金，以及如果自愿的私有債務重組資金短缺時希臘可能需要額外的資金，那么大概只剩2000億歐元。在目前歐洲中央銀行購買國債的速度下，這筆資金將不會維持很長時間，特別是其中有些是為銀行留著的。
European politicians are unlikely to cough up more, so much discussion behind the scenes isabout how to lever up the rescue facility. Daniel Gros of the Centre for European PolicyStudies and Thomas Mayer of Deutsche Bank think the EFSF should be registered as a bankand allowed to borrow from the ECB, using the government bonds it buys as collateral. Thatkind of arms-length arrangement, they argue, would be much better than having the ECBbuy bonds itself, and would give the EFSF huge firepower. Conservative central bankersworry that it would still break the rule that bans direct purchases by the ECB, in spirit at least.
歐洲政客不愿意被迫支付更多，秘密地討論如何抬高救援額度。歐洲政策研究中心的丹尼爾格羅斯和德意志銀行的托馬斯梅耶爾認為，歐洲金融穩定機構應該以銀行資質進行注冊并且能夠將其購買的國債作為抵押從歐洲中央銀行貸款。他們認為，這種保持距離的安排將比歐洲中央銀行自己購買國債要好很多，而且將給予歐洲金融穩定機構更大的能力。保守的央行行長們擔心這仍將會破壞禁止歐洲中央銀行直接購買債券的規定，至少在精神上破壞了規矩。
An alternative, quietly touted by some North American officials, is to tempt investors intobuying bonds by giving them access to non-recourse loans from the ECB. The model isanother American innovation from the financial crisisthe Term Asset-Backed SecuritiesLoan Facility, or TALF. Soft loans from the Fed were designed to tempt investors into buyingsecurities; the Treasury promised to take the first tranche of any losses, thus protecting theFed. In a European version, cheap, non-recourse loans would encourage investors to buyItalian or Spanish bonds and bring down yields. The ECB would provide leverage, but anyinitial losses would be borne by the EFSF. The facilitys resources would be magnified,private investors would be drawn in and the price of bonds would still be set by the market.
還有種方式，一些北美洲的官員私底下大肆吹捧，就是通過讓投資者得到歐洲中央銀行的無追索權貸款來引誘他們購買債券。該模式是美國在金融危機中的另一項創新定期資產支持證券貸款工具。美聯儲提供的軟貸款計劃用于引誘投資者購買證券。財政部許諾如果出現任何虧損將承擔第一筆款項，從而保護美聯儲。在歐洲，低價、無追索權貸款將會鼓勵投資者購買意大利或西班牙債券，而且減少收益。歐洲中央銀行將會提供杠桿，但是任何前期損失將由歐洲金融穩定機構來承擔。歐洲金融穩定機構的資源將擴大，私人投資者將被引誘進行投資，而且債券價格仍然由市場決定。
Dusting off Americas crisis-management ideas makes sense: they were effective. ButEuropes task is far harder, not just because there are many more parties involved butbecause the end goal is so unclear. American officials were battling the temporary collapseof a financial system. European politicians need to create a new one, either with a moreintegrated fiscal union or a break-up of the current euro area. Without political leadership,the technocrats cannot solve the problem.
復制美國的金融危機管理理念是說得通的，因為它們有效。但是，歐洲的任務更加艱巨，不僅僅是因為歐洲牽涉的黨派較多，而是因為最終的目的還不明確。美國官員為了金融系統的臨時崩潰而戰斗。歐洲官員需要通過創建一個更加和諧的財政聯盟，亦或將目前的歐元區分開來創造一個新的金融系統。沒有政治領導，技術專家將無法解決這個問題。
