這是電視節目的黃金時代還是過剩時代

John Landgraf’s comments arrived like a thunderbolt.

約翰·蘭德格拉夫(John Landgraf)的評論不啻為一聲驚雷。

There’s a malaise in TV these days that’s felt among executives, viewers and critics, said Mr.Landgraf, the chief executive of FX Networks. And it’s the result of one thing: There is simplytoo much on television.

這位FX電視網的首席執行官說，高管、觀眾與評論家們都感覺到，如今的電視界存在著令人不安的感覺。而這只有一個原因：電視內容實在太多了。

The glut, he said at a Television Critics Association media event earlier this month, has made ithard to “cut through the clutter and create real buzz and has presented “a huge challenge infinding compelling original stories and the level of talent needed to sustain those stories.

8月初，他在電視評論家協會(Television Critics Association)的一次媒體活動上說，這種過量供應令電視節目很難“透過喧囂，創造真正刺激的東西，因此，“找到精彩的原創故事，以及有相應的水準能把這些故事維持下去的人才，就成了巨大的挑戰。

On the face of it, the assertion seemed absurd. After all, critics and viewers alike have hailedthis as another golden age of television, where shows as diverse and popular as “Game ofThrones and “Empire have become an indelible part of the culture, elevating TV from second-class status to a medium attracting top actors and film directors.

表面看來，這番斷言顯得很荒謬。畢竟，評論家和觀眾們都歡呼此時是電視的又一個黃金時代。諸如《權力的游戲》(Game of Thrones)和《嘻哈帝國》(Empire)等形形色色、大受歡迎的電視劇，都是這種文化不可磨滅的一部分，它們令電視從二流地位一躍成為吸引頂尖演員和電影導演的媒介。

But Mr. Landgraf’s comments were not dismissed as absurd or hyperbolic. Instead, Mr.Landgraf ignited a serious conversation, and no small amount of self-reflection, about howmuch is too much, and whether something is seriously out of whack in TV land.

但是蘭德格拉夫的評論并沒有被斥為荒謬夸張。正相反，他的話引發了嚴肅的討論，以及大量的反省，人們開始思考，“過多的度在哪里，電視的世界是否真的出現了什么問題。

“I hear it all the time, said Michael Lombardo, the president of programming at HBO. “Peoplegoing, ‘I can’t commit to another show, and I don’t have the time to emotionally commit toanother show.’ I hear that, and I’m aware of it, and I get it.

“我一直都聽到這種話，HBO臺節目總監邁克爾·隆巴多(Michael Lombardo)說。“人們說，‘我不能再追新劇了，我沒時間再為另一部新劇投入感情了。’聽到這個，我就明白了，我就懂了。

Mr. Lombardo and other executives say it is harder than ever to build an audience for a showwhen viewers are confronted with so many choices and might click away at any moment. As aresult, executives say, it’s hard to make money off that show.

羅姆巴多和其他行政人員說，如今，要為一檔節目建立起觀眾群變得更加困難，因為觀眾已有那么多的選擇，而且隨時都可以點擊關閉。因此，行政人員們說，一檔節目要賺錢就更不容易。

The success of scripted shows like “Modern Family, “The Walking Dead and others has set offsomething like a land grab. The number of scripted shows produced by networks, cablenetworks and online services ballooned to 371 last year, according to statistics compiled by FX.Mr. Landgraf believes that figure will pass 400 this year, which would nearly double the 211shows made in 2009.

《摩登家庭》(Modern Family)和《行尸走肉》(The Walking Dead)等腳本電視劇大獲成功，這是建立在搶先占領地盤的基礎上的。根據FX統計的數據，去年，各家無線臺、有線臺和在線服務投拍的劇集猛增至371部。蘭德格拉夫認為，今年這個數字應當會超過400部，比2009年的211部多了將近一倍。

“What I’ve seen for years and years and years, when we go out and talk to audiences, is thattelevision is less precious to them because there’s so much of it, Mr. Landgraf said in aninterview. “Television episodes, television shows, television programmers are all a dime adozen.

“年復一年，我們走出去和觀眾們交流時，總會感到電視在他們心目中變得不再珍貴，就是因為有太多電視節目了，蘭德格拉夫在一次采訪中說。“那么多電視劇、電視節目、電視制作人，根本就不值錢。

“There’s a mismatch right now between the capital allocation of making and marketing TV showsand the audience they’re generating, he added.

“目前，在電視節目的制作與市場營銷上投入的資金，與其所吸引到的觀眾之間的比例并不協調，他補充道。

The hand-wringing and cautionary words come at a time of transition for many televisioncompanies. Media stocks tumbled earlier this month over what analysts said was a lack ofconfidence in cable bundles that had become too bloated and expensive. Consolidation hastaken hold in the industry as media companies try to grow and gain more leverage.

這番絕望而又充滿告誡的言辭脫口之時，正值多家電視公司轉型之際。8月初，傳媒股票迎來大跌，分析人士稱，這是因為對過分膨脹與昂貴的有線類股票缺乏信心所致。行業內不斷發生合并，各家傳媒公司都在努力發展，試圖獲得更多影響力。

Diminished ratings in television have been a reality for some time, but that has largely beencredited to technological challenges and changes in viewing habits. Mr. Landgraf,counterintuitively, attributes declining ratings, in part, to too much choice, no matter howgood the show.

電視收視率下降有些時候確實是事實，但這主要是因為技術的挑戰，以及收視習慣的改變。蘭德格拉夫認為，收視率的下降部分是由于選擇太多，不管節目有多么精彩。這個看法和人們的直覺不太一樣。

For programmers, the challenge is a creative one: Is there really that much talent to goaround? And for cable channels and the networks, it’s another problem: They have ad-supported businesses, so what happens when people can’t find their shows?

對于節目制作者們來說，挑戰在于創作的層面：真的有那么多的人才嗎?對于有線臺和無線臺來說，則是另一個問題：他們的生意是靠廣告來支持的，所以，如果人們找不到適合自己的節目怎么辦?

“Why should I start a new series that John Landgraf creates on FX when I can go start‘Breaking Bad’? said Rich Greenfield, a media analyst with BTIG. “I may get to John’s show, butI may not get to it for three years. And for companies where a huge part of the business modelis built around TV advertising, if you don’t watch it in the first three days, it’s worth nothingfrom an advertising standpoint.

“有《絕命毒師》(Breaking Bad)看，我為什么要看約翰·蘭德格拉夫在FX拍的新劇呢?BTIG媒體分析師里奇·格林菲爾德(Rich Greenfield)說。“我可能會去看約翰的劇，但我可能不會一連看三年。對于那些大部分商業模式都是圍繞電視廣告建立的公司來說，如果你在上映后的三天里不看這部劇，從廣告的角度而言，它就一錢不值了。

Showtime’s president, David Nevins, however, said he thinks viewers are hardly troubled bythe extensive menu of offerings.

不過映時臺(Showtime)總裁大衛·內文思(David Nevins)說，他覺得觀眾不會太擔心選擇過多的問題。

“No matter how much they like whatever show they’re watching right now, they’re saying, ‘What else should I be watching?’ he said. “They want more.

“不管他們多喜歡眼下正在看的劇，他們總會說，‘我還能再看點什么?’他說。“他們總想看更多。

Charlie Collier, the president of AMC, was even more forceful. “ ‘Too much TV’ sounds likesurrender, he said. “Actually, the answer to too much TV is and has always been the nextgreat series, the one that makes viewers drop everything and show up for the event.

AMC臺總裁查理·科利爾(Charlie Collier)措辭更強烈。“‘電視節目太多’聽上去像投降，他說。“事實上，對于太多的電視節目，答案永遠是下一部精彩的劇集，一部讓所有觀眾都能放下手頭所有事情，一到時間就去看的劇集。

Others also point out that the explosion in programming has created more opportunity forshows with diverse casts and topics, such as “Jane the Virgin, “Transparent and “Orange Isthe New Black. Marti Noxon, the showrunner for Lifetime’s “UnREAL and Bravo’s “Girlfriends’Guide to Divorce, said there’s been a “sea change in the last five years.

還有人指出，電視節目的大爆發為各種演員和題材創造了更多的機會，比如《處女情緣》(Jane the Virgin)、《透明家庭》(Transparent)和《女子監獄》(Orange Is the New Black)。馬丁·諾克森(Martin Noxon)是Lifetime臺《鏡花水月》(UnREAL)與Bravo臺《閨蜜離婚指南》(Girlfriends’ Guide to Divorce)的主創，她說過去五年里發生了“天翻地覆的變化。

“I couldn’t have gotten those two shows on TV five years ago, she said. “There was notenough opportunity for voices that speak to a smaller audience. Now many of these places arelooking to reach some people — not all the people. That’s opened up a tremendousopportunity for women and other people that have been left out of the conversation.

“五年前，我不可能在電視臺得到那兩部劇，她說。“只對少數觀眾發言的聲音得不到足夠的機會。如今，很多電視臺都在努力接觸一些人群——并不是所有人群。因此女人和其他曾被拒之門外的人有了極大的機會。

The proliferation of TV shows has also created a pipeline for talent in the industry, said ChrisAlbrecht, the chief executive of Starz. Good shows, he said, become good training grounds“for good writers who then become good showrunners.

電視節目的膨脹也為行業內的人才提供了平臺，Starz臺的首席執行官克里斯·阿爾布萊希特(Chris Albrechet)說。他還說，好的節目是“優秀作者的好的訓練場，可以幫他們成為優秀的劇集主創。

The boom has been spurred by several factors: The television season is now a year-roundevent, with new shows coming on the air even in summer. And the number of programmers,whether on cable or streaming services like Amazon or Netflix, has risen tremendously. (“Thisyear, I finally lost track of the ability to keep track of every programmer who is in the scripted-programming business, Mr. Landgraf said at T.C.A.)

這種繁榮景象受到幾個因素的刺激：電視業內的一季如今以一年為周期，新劇從夏天就開始上映。不管是有線臺還是亞馬遜或Netflix等流媒體，它們的節目制作者都在大量崛起(“今年，我終于不再有能力關注每個劇本節目界的制作者的情況，蘭德格拉夫在電視評論家協會的活動中說)。

But streaming services like Hulu aren’t just producing new shows, they’re also salvaging oldones. “The Mindy Project was rejected by the audience, and Fox canceled it after its thirdseason. But Hulu, which relies on paid subscriptions, picked up the show, and its fourth seasonwill debut on the streaming service next month.

但是Hulu這樣的流媒體不再滿足于制作新劇，它們還在舊劇中尋寶。《明迪煩事多》(The Mindy Project)不受觀眾喜歡，第三季之后被Fox砍掉。但是建立在付費會員制基礎上的Hulu重新拾起了它，它的第四季將于下月在這家流媒體服務網站上映。

“It’s not a glut of programming, it’s a glut of choices. And we are happily part of that, saidCraig Erwich, Hulu’s head of content. “One of our values here is we put the viewer first, and wewant to overwhelm them with choice and let them decide what they want to do.

“問題不在于節目，而是在于選擇太多。我們為此有點高興，Hulu內容部門的負責人克里格·厄維奇(CraigErwich)說。“我們的一條價值觀就是觀眾至上，我們希望用各種選擇淹沒他們，讓他們決定自己該怎么辦。

Another complication is that shows not only compete against one another, but also againstold series that live on in the archives of Amazon, Hulu or Netflix. So a new season of “Scandal,for example, is also competing against old series like “The Wire.

另一個復雜的問題是，各種節目不止是互相競爭，而且也要和亞馬遜、Hulu和Netflix存檔的老劇競爭。所以《丑聞》(Scandal)這樣的新劇也要和《火線》(The Wire)這樣的老劇競爭。

Mr. Landgraf said he thinks a contraction is coming. He predicted that the number of showswould slowly return to about 325 over the next few years, in large part because scriptedtelevision is expensive.

蘭德格拉夫說，他認為行業的收縮即將到來。他預言，電視劇的數量會在未來幾年緩慢下降到每年325部，主要是由于有腳本的電視節目太昂貴。

“It’s a big operation, he said. “Cameras, sound, locations, insurance, trucks, actors, crew,director, writer. It’s not a business that can be scaled in a different way. YouTube can make adifferent kind of television content relatively inexpensively in a warehouse, but professionallymade scripted television content is capital intensive and therefore requires a large audience.

“這是一項大工程，他說。“鏡頭、音響、外景、保險、卡車、演員、劇組、導演、編劇。這不是一個能以不同方式衡量的產業。YouTube在一間倉庫里就能以相對便宜的經費做出另一種電視內容，但是專業腳本電視內容是資本密集產業，因此需要大量觀眾。

Media companies have responded to the growing challenges in different ways. Mr. Landgraf saidthat FX has been aggressive in producing and owning its own shows.

傳媒公司以各種形式應對日益增長的挑戰。蘭德格拉夫說，FX臺正在積極制作和獲取屬于自己的劇集。

HBO, which does not depend on advertising, is responding in its own way. Mr. Lombardo saidhe spends much of his time with other kinds of programming since scripted shows are soprevalent, adding that his “audience is becoming inured to the distinctiveness of a show.

HBO臺不需要依賴廣告，因此也有自己的做法。羅姆巴多說，現在他花很多時間看其他類型的節目，因為腳本節目太多了，他說，“觀眾開始對有個性的節目見怪不怪。

“Do we want to do another drama series? he said. “No. Unless it has the potential to be great.What we’re looking to do is offer a variety of kind of television entertainment engagementexperiences.

“我們還需要再拍一部情節連續劇嗎?他說。“不，除非它有成為偉大作品的潛力。我們現在想做的，是提供各種各樣的電視娛樂體驗。

He cited documentary series like “The Jinx, about the fugitive Robert Durst, and talk showslike those hosted by John Oliver and a forthcoming show featuring Bill Simmons as examples ofprogramming that gets more of his attention these days. HBO also recently picked up the rightsto “Sesame Street.

他援引了《紐約災星》(The Jinx)這部紀錄片，它是關于逃亡者羅伯特·德斯特(Robert Durst)的;還有像約翰·奧利佛(John Oliver)主持的脫口秀;以及即將上映的，有比爾·西蒙斯(Bill Simmons)參演的節目，這些都是近日來引發他更多關注的節目。HBO臺最近還得到了《芝麻街》(Sesame Street)的各項版權。

“Over the last few years, we had as many serious conversations about a Bill Simmons as wewould the next great drama series, he said. “In terms of what are the big things coming upnext year? I spend as much of my time thinking about that as I do in rooms with writers. Mr.Landgraf, whose network has created successful shows like “Louie, “Fargo and “TheAmericans, said there’s a “fussiness among viewers that is making it more difficult for them tobecome loyal to great shows.