報告：不管有沒有移民，歐洲穆斯林人口都將增加

Even if European countries closed their borders to all migrants and refugees, the percentage of Muslims on the continent would continue to rise over the next three decades, according to a report released Wednesday by the Washington-based Pew Research Center.

According to Pew's data, Muslims made up 4.9 percent of Europe's population in 2024, with an estimated 25.8 million people across 30 countries, up from 3.8 percent, or 19.5 million people, in 2010. The number of Muslim migrants arriving in Europe surged after 2024 to almost a half-million annually, largely due to people fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The countries covered in the study included the 28 European Union members, plus Norway and Switzerland.

The report considered three scenarios: zero migration between 2024 and 2050; medium migration, in which the flow of refugees stops but people continue to migrate for other reasons; and high migration, in which the record flow of migrants between 2024 and 2024 continues indefinitely with the same religious composition.

Under the first scenario, the population would continue to grow because Muslims are, on average, 13 years younger than other Europeans and also have a higher birthrate. The study projected Muslims could make up 7.4 percent of the European population by 2050, even with zero migration.

Under the medium migration scenario, Muslims could account for 11.2 percent of Europe's population by 2050. While under the high migration, the record flow of migrants who came to Europe between 2024 and 2024 would continue indefinitely, resulting in 75 million Muslims in Europe, or about 14 percent of the population by the middle of the century.

But even the scenario with the largest growth leaves the Muslim population considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe, according to the report.

總部設在華盛頓的皮尤研究中心星期三發布的一份報告說，即使歐洲國家對所有移民和難民關閉邊界，歐洲大陸人口中穆斯林的比例今后30年仍將持續上升。

皮尤研究中心的數據顯示，歐洲2024年人口中有4.9%是穆斯林，總人數為2580萬，分布在30個國家，而2010年的同比數字是3.8%，約1950萬人。進入歐洲的穆斯林人數2024年之后大幅度增加，平均每年將近50萬，主要是因為他們逃離敘利亞、伊拉克和阿富汗的沖突。

皮尤研究中心的研究涵蓋歐盟28個成員國，以及挪威和瑞士。

皮尤報告做了三個假設：2024年到2050年期間移民人數為零；中等程度的移民數量，即難民潮停止，但是基于其它原因的移民活動繼續進行；大量移民，即2024年到2024年創紀錄的移民人數將來永遠不變，移民中的各宗教信仰比例不變。

按照第一種假設，穆斯林在總人口中的比例仍將繼續增加，因為穆斯林的平均年齡比歐洲人口平均年齡低13歲，同時生育率也高。報告預計，即使今后移民人數為零，2050年歐洲人口中穆斯林的比例仍將增長到7.4%。

按照第二種假設，中等程度的移民數量，2050年歐洲人口中穆斯林的比例將增長到11.2%。而如果是第三種假設，按照2024到2024年穆斯林移民進入歐洲的速度，歐洲人口到2050年將有7500萬穆斯林，相當于歐洲人口的14%。

報告說，即使按照最快的增長速度，穆斯林在歐洲人口中的比例仍將低于基督徒和無宗教信仰者。

Even if European countries closed their borders to all migrants and refugees, the percentage of Muslims on the continent would continue to rise over the next three decades, according to a report released Wednesday by the Washington-based Pew Research Center.

According to Pew's data, Muslims made up 4.9 percent of Europe's population in 2024, with an estimated 25.8 million people across 30 countries, up from 3.8 percent, or 19.5 million people, in 2010. The number of Muslim migrants arriving in Europe surged after 2024 to almost a half-million annually, largely due to people fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The countries covered in the study included the 28 European Union members, plus Norway and Switzerland.

The report considered three scenarios: zero migration between 2024 and 2050; medium migration, in which the flow of refugees stops but people continue to migrate for other reasons; and high migration, in which the record flow of migrants between 2024 and 2024 continues indefinitely with the same religious composition.

Under the first scenario, the population would continue to grow because Muslims are, on average, 13 years younger than other Europeans and also have a higher birthrate. The study projected Muslims could make up 7.4 percent of the European population by 2050, even with zero migration.

Under the medium migration scenario, Muslims could account for 11.2 percent of Europe's population by 2050. While under the high migration, the record flow of migrants who came to Europe between 2024 and 2024 would continue indefinitely, resulting in 75 million Muslims in Europe, or about 14 percent of the population by the middle of the century.

But even the scenario with the largest growth leaves the Muslim population considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe, according to the report.

總部設在華盛頓的皮尤研究中心星期三發布的一份報告說，即使歐洲國家對所有移民和難民關閉邊界，歐洲大陸人口中穆斯林的比例今后30年仍將持續上升。

皮尤研究中心的數據顯示，歐洲2024年人口中有4.9%是穆斯林，總人數為2580萬，分布在30個國家，而2010年的同比數字是3.8%，約1950萬人。進入歐洲的穆斯林人數2024年之后大幅度增加，平均每年將近50萬，主要是因為他們逃離敘利亞、伊拉克和阿富汗的沖突。

皮尤研究中心的研究涵蓋歐盟28個成員國，以及挪威和瑞士。

皮尤報告做了三個假設：2024年到2050年期間移民人數為零；中等程度的移民數量，即難民潮停止，但是基于其它原因的移民活動繼續進行；大量移民，即2024年到2024年創紀錄的移民人數將來永遠不變，移民中的各宗教信仰比例不變。

按照第一種假設，穆斯林在總人口中的比例仍將繼續增加，因為穆斯林的平均年齡比歐洲人口平均年齡低13歲，同時生育率也高。報告預計，即使今后移民人數為零，2050年歐洲人口中穆斯林的比例仍將增長到7.4%。

按照第二種假設，中等程度的移民數量，2050年歐洲人口中穆斯林的比例將增長到11.2%。而如果是第三種假設，按照2024到2024年穆斯林移民進入歐洲的速度，歐洲人口到2050年將有7500萬穆斯林，相當于歐洲人口的14%。

報告說，即使按照最快的增長速度，穆斯林在歐洲人口中的比例仍將低于基督徒和無宗教信仰者。