2023考研英語閱讀新的希臘
WITH the euro crisis in abeyance, high oil priceshave become the latest source of worry for theworld economy. Oil is the new Greece is a typicalheadline on a recent report by HSBC analysts. Thefear is understandable. Oil markets are edgy;tensions with Iran are high. The price of Brent crudeshot up by more than $5 a barrel on March 1st, to$128, after an Iranian press report that explosionshad destroyed a vital Saudi Arabian oil pipeline. Itfell back after the Saudis denied the claim, but at$125, crude is still 16% costlier than at the start ofthe year.
隨著歐元危機的緩解，高油價成了世界經濟的新憂慮之源。石油就是新的希臘這一代表性的題目出現在了匯豐的分析員最近的一份報告中?？只攀强梢岳斫獾?，伊朗局勢很緊張，原有市場命懸一線。三月一號，伊朗媒體報道了爆炸摧毀了沙特阿拉伯一條重要的輸油管道后，布倫特原油價格竄升到了128美元，每桶漲了5美元多，之后沙特否認了該說法，油價又跌到了125美元，不過這仍比年初貴16%。
Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is drivingup the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? Andwhat damage could plausible future increases do?
評估油老大的風險敞口意味著回答四個問題：什么推高了油價?它能漲多高?目前可能的經濟影響有什么?還有未來不確定的增長會造成什么危害?
The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to globalgrowth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequentexplanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. Inrecent months the worlds big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expandedquantitative easing or promised to keep rates low for longer.This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets,especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than theenactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, BenBernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE . Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a risein oil inventoriesexactly the opposite of what has happened.
高油價的源頭至關重要。比如，像供應異動對全球經濟造成的危害就比需求走強型油價攀升大。對于目前的上漲，一個常被用到的解釋就是央行的慷慨救助推升了油價。在近幾個月里，全球各大央行不是在注入流動性，增加量化寬松，就是在保證延長保持低利率的期限。就像爭論的那樣，廉價資金的涌入早把投資者推到了硬資產那邊，特別是石油那里。不過因為市場是有預測性的，所以是量化寬松的宣布提升了油價，而不是實施。確實，上個月美聯儲主席本伯南克宣布沒有下一輪量化寬松，是讓市場很失望的。另外，如果價格上漲是由投機者造成的，你將會看到原油庫存的增加這完全與事實背道而馳。
Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, whichin turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. Therecent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: aeuro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and Americasrecovery seems on stronger ground.
各大央行可能會通過提升全球增長預期來直接影響油價，而預期增長也會反過來支撐原油需求的預期。有詳細的證據支持該論點。最近的油價上升是伴隨著對全球經濟過分樂觀的：歐元區的大災變和中國經濟的硬著陸的都不太可能了，而且美國的復蘇看起來也在穩步增強。
But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver ofdearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than1m barrels a day of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from apipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, haveknocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil istemporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a paymentdispute with China.
不過，些許的美好增長前景只是故事的一部分。油老大更為重要的驅動力在于供應缺損。在近幾個月里，原油市場每天可能總共損失一百萬桶。從與南蘇丹的管道糾紛到北海的機械故障，各種各樣的非伊朗性問題每天就能搞砸70萬桶供應。其余的每天50多萬桶伊朗原油就因為歐盟的處罰和與中國的支付糾紛，暫時的離開了市場。
The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. Theextent of OPECs spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, anear-record high . And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions ifIran were ever to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17mbarrels of oil pass every day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure wouldimply a disruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, forinstance, involved less than 5m b/d.
零散供給的緩沖作用挺弱的。石油類股票價格在發達國家創五年內新低，石油輸出國組織OPEC的備用生產能力也不確定，沙特阿拉伯現在每天都抽1千萬桶，也創了近期新高。如果伊朗要封鎖霍爾木茲海峽進行報復，這就是對供給損毀相當大的威脅，每天有一千七百萬原油通過霍爾木茲海峽，占全球供給的20%多。即使是短暫封鎖造成的供應縮減也會使以前的石油危機相形見絀，例如，1973年阿拉伯的原油禁運每天才不到5百萬桶。
Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckonsthat the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around $118 a barrel.He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iranimprove, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to $120.
區分這些種類繁多的因素是不容易的，但高盛的杰佛里庫瑞Jeffrey Currie猜測，供求的基本面就把油價推升到了每桶118美元。他認為剩下的那些漲幅歸根于對于伊朗的恐懼。如果這樣，就應該改善與伊朗的關系，油價就能下降幾美元，但也在120美元左右。
Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb isthat a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in thefirst year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, whotend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvementselsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects forglobal growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.
從全球角度來看，油價上漲帶來的危害可能要小點。根據經驗，油價持續上升10%在第一年會削掉全球增長的0.2%，這主要是因為油老大把收益從消費者轉移到了生產者，而生產者傾向于消費少點。對于現在，任何影響幾乎都超過了其他方面的改善，尤其在歐債危機緩解上面。撇開油老大，全球經濟前景還是比年初時候的好一些。
But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a netimporter which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a $10 increase in oil prices knocks around 0.2% off output in the firstyear and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that iswidely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.
不過，油價的影響對每個國家經濟增長和通貨膨脹的影響都是不一樣的。美國，作為一個凈輸入國對油品征稅較輕，一般規則是油價上升10美元第一年的產出減少0.2%，第二年減少0.5%。這將令一個今年預期增長超過2%的經濟體發展放緩，但不會傾覆。
There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil thanin recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Risingemployment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And Americaseconomy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oilconsumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.
無論如何，美國比過去幾年對油老大都更有抗逆性是有一些原因的?，F在的油價躥升比11年和08年的都弱。美國經濟不再是那么能源集中型的了，而且對進口的依賴也更小了。在過去的兩年里，原油消耗減小了，但GDP依然增長。
Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports arewell below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oilstays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas priceshave plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heatingunusually low. In January the share of consumers spending on energy products was thesecond-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spikingoil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.
美國人更少開車了，而且他們也在購買節能型車輛。原油凈進口量遠低于05年的峰值，這就意味著美國人花在油老大身上的錢更多地留在了美國國內。對儲量豐富的天然氣的開發也意味著天然氣價格的下降。盡管伴隨著一個異常寒冷的冬天，這也令家庭取暖費非常低廉。一月份消費者在能源類產品上的支出比例為50年來的第二低位。這些原因雖然不能說明美國對于油價飚升的敏感性不強，但意味著目前油價上漲的影響需要重新評估。
Europe is more exposed. European countries, which tax oil more heavily than America, havetypically seen a smaller impact on growth from changes in the oil price. But this time theymay be relatively more affected, because most economies are already stagnant orshrinking. Worse, Europes weakest peripheral economies are also some of the biggest netimporters . Greece, for instance, is highly dependent on imported energy, ofwhich 88% is oil. Even the price rises to date will worsen the euro-zone recession; a bigjump could spawn a deep downturn and fracture the confidence of markets.
歐洲則無所遁形。歐洲各國比美國對原油征稅重，他們早就看到過油價變化對經濟增長的一些影響。這次他們可能會受到更大的干擾，因為很多經濟體已經陷入了萎縮和滯脹。更糟的是，歐洲一些衰弱的外圍經濟體還是幾個最大的原油凈進口國。比如說希臘，高度依賴進口能源，其中的百分之八十八都是石油。即便是油價現在這個漲幅，也會使歐元區的衰退更加惡化;油價的一個大幅躍升可能釀成更深的衰退，同時也瓦解了市場信心。
Britain is relatively insulated. Although it is a net oil importer, it has significant resources inthe North Sea. Any losses to the consumer from dearer fuel are partially offset by gains inthe oil and gas sector itself. But even in Britain the net effect of price increases to date couldbe more damaging than usual, particularly since they reduce the odds of sharply fallinginflation. Lower inflation, and a rise in real incomes, are one reason British policymakershoped to see the economy improve this year.
英國是相對獨立的。盡管它也是石油凈進口國，不過在北海它有大量的資源。油老大對消費者帶來的損失能被本國油氣部門的收益所抵消。盡管如此，目前油價上漲影響對英國的危害也是非比尋常的，特別在它降低了通脹大幅下降的可能后。更低的通脹，就是實際收入的增加，是英國決策者今年希望看到的經濟改善之一。
Barrels, no laughs.
筒子，別笑。
In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate. Oil exporters, from Venezuelato the Middle East, are gaining; oil importers will see worsening trade balances. In 2008 and2011, the main effect of dearer fuel in emerging economies was on inflation. That is less ofa worry now, largely because food prices, which make up a much bigger part of mostemerging economies consumption basket, are stable.
在新興經濟體，情形更是千差萬別。從委內瑞拉到中東，石油出口國都賺了，石油進口國將會看到更加惡化的貿易差額。在08年和11年，油老大在新興經濟體的主要影響表現在通脹上?，F在就沒那么擔心了，這主要是因為，在新興經濟體消費籃子中比重劇增的食品價格比較穩定。
But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emergingeconomies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil butalso from the weakening of European export markets.
但是某些國家將會面臨一些問題。短期來看，一些受到重創的國家將會在東歐。它們不僅要忍受高油價，還要遭受歐洲出口市場的惡化。
India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component of its wholesale-price index, for example, soinflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To theextent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulatesand heavily subsidisestheprice of diesel and kerosene. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only31% since January 2009, whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. Thedifference is a result of subsidies, frustrating Indias efforts to reduce its budget deficit.
印度也是個麻煩。舉個例子，燃料是印度大宗商品指數的重要組成部分，因為油價會傳導到國內燃料成本，所以通脹就會上升。到了承受不了的程度，預算會被重創。印度規范了同時也著重補貼柴油和煤油的價格。據德意志銀行稱，從09年一月起，按盧比計算的原油價格增長了180% ，而柴油價格只漲了31%。這個差距是補貼的結果，不過也浪費了印度縮減預算赤字的努力。
So oil is not the new Greece. More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to globalgrowth. But it is not helping Europes more fragile economies. And if the Strait of Hormuz isthreatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery.
所以，石油并不是新的希臘。目前來看，昂貴的石油幾乎對全球增長沒有什么危害，但它也沒有幫助歐洲脆弱的經濟。如果霍爾木茲海峽受到威脅，由此產生的油價飚升將為全球經濟復蘇畫上一個休止符。
WITH the euro crisis in abeyance, high oil priceshave become the latest source of worry for theworld economy. Oil is the new Greece is a typicalheadline on a recent report by HSBC analysts. Thefear is understandable. Oil markets are edgy;tensions with Iran are high. The price of Brent crudeshot up by more than $5 a barrel on March 1st, to$128, after an Iranian press report that explosionshad destroyed a vital Saudi Arabian oil pipeline. Itfell back after the Saudis denied the claim, but at$125, crude is still 16% costlier than at the start ofthe year.
隨著歐元危機的緩解，高油價成了世界經濟的新憂慮之源。石油就是新的希臘這一代表性的題目出現在了匯豐的分析員最近的一份報告中。恐慌是可以理解的，伊朗局勢很緊張，原有市場命懸一線。三月一號，伊朗媒體報道了爆炸摧毀了沙特阿拉伯一條重要的輸油管道后，布倫特原油價格竄升到了128美元，每桶漲了5美元多，之后沙特否認了該說法，油價又跌到了125美元，不過這仍比年初貴16%。
Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is drivingup the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? Andwhat damage could plausible future increases do?
評估油老大的風險敞口意味著回答四個問題：什么推高了油價?它能漲多高?目前可能的經濟影響有什么?還有未來不確定的增長會造成什么危害?
The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to globalgrowth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequentexplanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. Inrecent months the worlds big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expandedquantitative easing or promised to keep rates low for longer.This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets,especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than theenactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, BenBernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE . Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a risein oil inventoriesexactly the opposite of what has happened.
高油價的源頭至關重要。比如，像供應異動對全球經濟造成的危害就比需求走強型油價攀升大。對于目前的上漲，一個常被用到的解釋就是央行的慷慨救助推升了油價。在近幾個月里，全球各大央行不是在注入流動性，增加量化寬松，就是在保證延長保持低利率的期限。就像爭論的那樣，廉價資金的涌入早把投資者推到了硬資產那邊，特別是石油那里。不過因為市場是有預測性的，所以是量化寬松的宣布提升了油價，而不是實施。確實，上個月美聯儲主席本伯南克宣布沒有下一輪量化寬松，是讓市場很失望的。另外，如果價格上漲是由投機者造成的，你將會看到原油庫存的增加這完全與事實背道而馳。
Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, whichin turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. Therecent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: aeuro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and Americasrecovery seems on stronger ground.
各大央行可能會通過提升全球增長預期來直接影響油價，而預期增長也會反過來支撐原油需求的預期。有詳細的證據支持該論點。最近的油價上升是伴隨著對全球經濟過分樂觀的：歐元區的大災變和中國經濟的硬著陸的都不太可能了，而且美國的復蘇看起來也在穩步增強。
But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver ofdearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than1m barrels a day of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from apipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, haveknocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil istemporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a paymentdispute with China.
不過，些許的美好增長前景只是故事的一部分。油老大更為重要的驅動力在于供應缺損。在近幾個月里，原油市場每天可能總共損失一百萬桶。從與南蘇丹的管道糾紛到北海的機械故障，各種各樣的非伊朗性問題每天就能搞砸70萬桶供應。其余的每天50多萬桶伊朗原油就因為歐盟的處罰和與中國的支付糾紛，暫時的離開了市場。
The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. Theextent of OPECs spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, anear-record high . And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions ifIran were ever to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17mbarrels of oil pass every day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure wouldimply a disruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, forinstance, involved less than 5m b/d.
零散供給的緩沖作用挺弱的。石油類股票價格在發達國家創五年內新低，石油輸出國組織OPEC的備用生產能力也不確定，沙特阿拉伯現在每天都抽1千萬桶，也創了近期新高。如果伊朗要封鎖霍爾木茲海峽進行報復，這就是對供給損毀相當大的威脅，每天有一千七百萬原油通過霍爾木茲海峽，占全球供給的20%多。即使是短暫封鎖造成的供應縮減也會使以前的石油危機相形見絀，例如，1973年阿拉伯的原油禁運每天才不到5百萬桶。
Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckonsthat the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around $118 a barrel.He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iranimprove, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to $120.
區分這些種類繁多的因素是不容易的，但高盛的杰佛里庫瑞Jeffrey Currie猜測，供求的基本面就把油價推升到了每桶118美元。他認為剩下的那些漲幅歸根于對于伊朗的恐懼。如果這樣，就應該改善與伊朗的關系，油價就能下降幾美元，但也在120美元左右。
Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb isthat a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in thefirst year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, whotend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvementselsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects forglobal growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.
從全球角度來看，油價上漲帶來的危害可能要小點。根據經驗，油價持續上升10%在第一年會削掉全球增長的0.2%，這主要是因為油老大把收益從消費者轉移到了生產者，而生產者傾向于消費少點。對于現在，任何影響幾乎都超過了其他方面的改善，尤其在歐債危機緩解上面。撇開油老大，全球經濟前景還是比年初時候的好一些。
But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a netimporter which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a $10 increase in oil prices knocks around 0.2% off output in the firstyear and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that iswidely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.
不過，油價的影響對每個國家經濟增長和通貨膨脹的影響都是不一樣的。美國，作為一個凈輸入國對油品征稅較輕，一般規則是油價上升10美元第一年的產出減少0.2%，第二年減少0.5%。這將令一個今年預期增長超過2%的經濟體發展放緩，但不會傾覆。
There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil thanin recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Risingemployment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And Americaseconomy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oilconsumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.
無論如何，美國比過去幾年對油老大都更有抗逆性是有一些原因的。現在的油價躥升比11年和08年的都弱。美國經濟不再是那么能源集中型的了，而且對進口的依賴也更小了。在過去的兩年里，原油消耗減小了，但GDP依然增長。
Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports arewell below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oilstays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas priceshave plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heatingunusually low. In January the share of consumers spending on energy products was thesecond-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spikingoil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.
美國人更少開車了，而且他們也在購買節能型車輛。原油凈進口量遠低于05年的峰值，這就意味著美國人花在油老大身上的錢更多地留在了美國國內。對儲量豐富的天然氣的開發也意味著天然氣價格的下降。盡管伴隨著一個異常寒冷的冬天，這也令家庭取暖費非常低廉。一月份消費者在能源類產品上的支出比例為50年來的第二低位。這些原因雖然不能說明美國對于油價飚升的敏感性不強，但意味著目前油價上漲的影響需要重新評估。
Europe is more exposed. European countries, which tax oil more heavily than America, havetypically seen a smaller impact on growth from changes in the oil price. But this time theymay be relatively more affected, because most economies are already stagnant orshrinking. Worse, Europes weakest peripheral economies are also some of the biggest netimporters . Greece, for instance, is highly dependent on imported energy, ofwhich 88% is oil. Even the price rises to date will worsen the euro-zone recession; a bigjump could spawn a deep downturn and fracture the confidence of markets.
歐洲則無所遁形。歐洲各國比美國對原油征稅重，他們早就看到過油價變化對經濟增長的一些影響。這次他們可能會受到更大的干擾，因為很多經濟體已經陷入了萎縮和滯脹。更糟的是，歐洲一些衰弱的外圍經濟體還是幾個最大的原油凈進口國。比如說希臘，高度依賴進口能源，其中的百分之八十八都是石油。即便是油價現在這個漲幅，也會使歐元區的衰退更加惡化;油價的一個大幅躍升可能釀成更深的衰退，同時也瓦解了市場信心。
Britain is relatively insulated. Although it is a net oil importer, it has significant resources inthe North Sea. Any losses to the consumer from dearer fuel are partially offset by gains inthe oil and gas sector itself. But even in Britain the net effect of price increases to date couldbe more damaging than usual, particularly since they reduce the odds of sharply fallinginflation. Lower inflation, and a rise in real incomes, are one reason British policymakershoped to see the economy improve this year.
英國是相對獨立的。盡管它也是石油凈進口國，不過在北海它有大量的資源。油老大對消費者帶來的損失能被本國油氣部門的收益所抵消。盡管如此，目前油價上漲影響對英國的危害也是非比尋常的，特別在它降低了通脹大幅下降的可能后。更低的通脹，就是實際收入的增加，是英國決策者今年希望看到的經濟改善之一。
Barrels, no laughs.
筒子，別笑。
In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate. Oil exporters, from Venezuelato the Middle East, are gaining; oil importers will see worsening trade balances. In 2008 and2011, the main effect of dearer fuel in emerging economies was on inflation. That is less ofa worry now, largely because food prices, which make up a much bigger part of mostemerging economies consumption basket, are stable.
在新興經濟體，情形更是千差萬別。從委內瑞拉到中東，石油出口國都賺了，石油進口國將會看到更加惡化的貿易差額。在08年和11年，油老大在新興經濟體的主要影響表現在通脹上?，F在就沒那么擔心了，這主要是因為，在新興經濟體消費籃子中比重劇增的食品價格比較穩定。
But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emergingeconomies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil butalso from the weakening of European export markets.
但是某些國家將會面臨一些問題。短期來看，一些受到重創的國家將會在東歐。它們不僅要忍受高油價，還要遭受歐洲出口市場的惡化。
India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component of its wholesale-price index, for example, soinflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To theextent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulatesand heavily subsidisestheprice of diesel and kerosene. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only31% since January 2009, whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. Thedifference is a result of subsidies, frustrating Indias efforts to reduce its budget deficit.
印度也是個麻煩。舉個例子，燃料是印度大宗商品指數的重要組成部分，因為油價會傳導到國內燃料成本，所以通脹就會上升。到了承受不了的程度，預算會被重創。印度規范了同時也著重補貼柴油和煤油的價格。據德意志銀行稱，從09年一月起，按盧比計算的原油價格增長了180% ，而柴油價格只漲了31%。這個差距是補貼的結果，不過也浪費了印度縮減預算赤字的努力。
So oil is not the new Greece. More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to globalgrowth. But it is not helping Europes more fragile economies. And if the Strait of Hormuz isthreatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery.
所以，石油并不是新的希臘。目前來看，昂貴的石油幾乎對全球增長沒有什么危害，但它也沒有幫助歐洲脆弱的經濟。如果霍爾木茲海峽受到威脅，由此產生的油價飚升將為全球經濟復蘇畫上一個休止符。
