Bellweather
2023復(fù)習(xí)正是強化復(fù)習(xí)階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強烈推薦了雜志《經(jīng)濟學(xué)人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Bell weather 呈鐘形曲線變化的天氣 A statistical analysis shows how things really areheating up 一項統(tǒng)計分析顯示出天氣究竟是如何變熱的 ARE heatwaves more common than they used to be? 熱浪來襲真的比以前更加頻繁了嗎? That is the question addressed by James Hansen and his colleagues in a paper just publishedin the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 詹姆斯?jié)h森與他的同事試圖在《美國國家科學(xué)院院報》上發(fā)表的一篇新文章中回答這一問題。 Their conclusion is that theyareand the data they draw on do not even include the current scorcher that is drying upmuch of North America and threatening its harvest. 他們得出的結(jié)論是，情況的確如此，而且得出這一結(jié)論的依據(jù)這還不包括最近北美的酷熱天氣。現(xiàn)在那里的大部分地區(qū)已經(jīng)干旱無比，當?shù)剞r(nóng)作物的收成也因此受到了威脅。 The team s method of presentation, however, has caused a stir among those who feel thatscientific papers should be dispassionate in their delivery of the evidence. 然而，詹姆斯?jié)h森與他的同事所采用的展示方案卻在一群人中引起了騷動。這些人認為科技論文在表述證據(jù)時應(yīng)客觀公正， For the paper, interesting though the evidence it delivers is, is far from dispassionate. 但有意思的是，該文章在表述證據(jù)時卻遠未做到不偏不倚。 Dr Hansen, who is head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, a branch of NASA that isbased in New York, is a polemicist of the risks of man-made global warming. 總部在紐約的戈達德太空研究所是美國國家航空航天局的一個分支部門，該研究所的負責(zé)人漢森博士能言善辯，他聲稱人為因素導(dǎo)致的全球變暖將給人類帶來危害。 Despite his job running a government laboratory, he has managed to get himself arrested onthree occasions for protesting against those he thinks are causing such climate change. 盡管漢森博士主管政府實驗室，他卻參加過抗議活動，以此來反對那些他認為將造成此類氣候變化的行為，而他也因此如愿被警察逮捕過三次。 He clearly states in the paper s introduction that he was looking for a way of conveying hisfears to a sceptical public. 漢森博士在他的文章序言中明確指出，他正在尋找一種方法，以此讓那些對他的觀點持懷疑態(tài)度的公眾體會到他的焦慮。 Some of that scepticism is connected with the fact that although changes in the climate willinevitably result in changes in the weather, ascribing any given eventsuch as a localheatwaveto climate change is impossible. 盡管氣候變化將不可避免地導(dǎo)致天氣變化，但不能將所有特定事件都歸因于氣候變化，而公眾的懷疑態(tài)度中有一部分就與這一事實有關(guān)。 Dr Hansen has therefore tried to go beyond the study of individual causes by demonstratingthat what was once unusual is now common. 因此，漢森博士通過論證過去人們眼中的異常天氣如今已是十分常見，試圖使他的研究不僅僅局限于個別原因。 Longer, hotter summers 夏天愈加漫長炎熱了 To do so, he and his colleagues took 60 years worth of data from the Goddard Institute ssurface air-temperature analysis. 為此，漢森博士與其同事從戈達德研究所收集了60年地表氣溫分析數(shù)據(jù)。 This analysis divides the planet s surface into cells 250km across and records the averagetemperature in each cell. 這些分析材料將地球表面分成了一個個寬250公里的區(qū)塊，并記錄了每個區(qū)域內(nèi)的平均溫度。 The researchers broke their data into six decade-long blocks and compared those blocks statistical properties. 研究者將這些數(shù)據(jù)按十年一組分成了六個時間段，并對這些時間段內(nèi)的統(tǒng)計特性進行了比較。 They looked in particular at the three months which constitute summer in the northernhemisphere. 研究者特別關(guān)注了北半球夏季三個月的溫度。 First, they created a reference value for each cell. 首先，他們計算出了1951年至1980年每一個區(qū)塊夏季三個月的平均溫度， This was its average temperature over those three months from 1951-80. 并將這些數(shù)據(jù)作為每個區(qū)塊的參考值。 Then they calculated how much the temperature in each cell deviated from the cell sreference value in any given summer. 接著，研究者又計算在任意指定的夏季內(nèi)每個區(qū)塊內(nèi)的溫度分別與各自的參考值存在多少偏差。 That done, they plotted a series of curves, one for each decade, that showed how frequentlyeach deviant value occurred. 這一步完成后，他們以十年為單位繪制了六條曲線，這些曲線顯示出了每一個偏差值發(fā)生的頻率。 Since small deviations are common and large ones are rare, the result of plotting data in thisway is a curve shaped somewhat like the cross-section of a bell. 由于小的偏差時有發(fā)生，而大的偏差則較為少見，因此用這一方法對數(shù)據(jù)進行描繪，得出的曲線形狀就像一個鐘的橫截面。 Such distributions can be modelled by a mathematical function known as the normaldistributionor bell curve. 這樣的分布狀態(tài)可以用數(shù)學(xué)上的一個函數(shù)來表示，即正態(tài)分布，又稱鐘形曲線。 Whether based on data or a mathematical ideal, such a curve always has two parameters. 無論是基于數(shù)據(jù)還是理想數(shù)學(xué)模型，鐘形曲線都有兩個參數(shù)。 These are its mean and its standard deviation, which measures how wide the bell is. 一個是平均值，另一個是它的標準差。 The standard deviation is calculated from all of the individual deviations of the data points. 標準差可以通過計算所有數(shù)值的方差得到。 To see what was going on, Dr Hansen superimposed the actual curves for each decade fromthe fifties to the noughties on a normal distribution, which acted as a reference curve. 為了弄清氣候變化，漢森博士以正態(tài)分布曲線為參照曲線，將其與六十年中每十年一條的實際曲線相疊加。 To make all the curves comparable, he expressed the values of the actual deviations asfractions of a standard deviation, and their frequencies as proportions of their total number. 為了使所有這些曲線具有可比性，漢森博士將實際偏差值用其與所屬樣本標準差的比例來衡量，用數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)生偏差數(shù)與數(shù)據(jù)總數(shù)的比例表述其頻率。 As the chart shows, there are two trends. 如圖所示，鐘形曲線表現(xiàn)出了兩種趨勢。 First, the peaks of the data-based curves move right, over time, with respect to thereference curve. In other words, the average temperature is rising. 第一，對照參考曲線，隨著時間的推移，這種數(shù)據(jù)型曲線的峰值會向右移，也就是說地球上的平均溫度在上升。 Second, more recent curves are flatter. 第二，時間距離現(xiàn)在越近，曲線越矮胖， A flatter curve means a bigger standard deviation and a wider spread of results. 這也就意味著標準差越大，溫度數(shù)據(jù)分布越廣。 If the mean of each curve were the same, such flattening would imply both more coldperiods and more hot ones. 如果每一條曲線的平均值相同，那么這種平滑過程也就意味著地球上的寒冷期和炎熱期的出現(xiàn)次數(shù)都會增加。 But because the mean is rising, the effect at the cold end of the curves is diminished, whilethat at the hot end is enhanced. 但由于這些曲線的平均值在增加，因此地球上寒冷期的出現(xiàn)次數(shù)會減少，而炎熱期的出現(xiàn)次數(shù)則會增加。 The upshot is more hot periods of local weather. 最終導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果就是各地出現(xiàn)炎熱天氣的次數(shù)越來越多。 Moreover, the bell-curve method makes it possible to say just how much more hot weatherthere is. 此外，有了鐘形曲線，人們還能判斷炎熱天氣的出現(xiàn)頻率比過去增加了多少。 Dr Hansen defined extreme conditions as those occurring more than three standarddeviations from the mean of his reference curve. 漢森博士下了定義：如果在他的參考曲線中某一數(shù)值偏離其平均值達到或超過三個標準差，那么這就是極端天氣。 In that curve, this would be an eighth of a percent at each end, which is more or less thevalue in the curve for 1951-61. 在參考曲線中，左右兩端數(shù)據(jù)中偏離均值超過三個標準差的極端數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)該恰好分別為0.125%，而1951至1961年這一時間段的極端數(shù)據(jù)分布情況大致上也符合這一特征。 Nowadays, though, extreme conditions can be found at any given time in about 8% of theworld. 但現(xiàn)在世界上約有8%的地區(qū)在特定時間內(nèi)都有極端天氣的出現(xiàn)。 Local weather patterns do, of course, have local causes. To that extent, they areaccidental. 當然，各地天氣模式的出現(xiàn)的確包含著地方性的原因。在這種程度上說，它們的發(fā)生是具有偶然性的。 But Dr Hansen s analysis suggests that claims there is more hot weather around than thereused to be have substance, too. 但漢森博士的分析表明，各地的炎熱天氣的確比以往多這種說法也是有依據(jù)的。 Nothing in his analysis speaks of the cause of that substance. That is deliberate. 但他的分析并沒有涉及到這種依據(jù)的來源，而這也是漢森博士有意為之。 As he says in the paper, he wants the data to speak for themselvesthough he is personallyconvinced that the cause is human-generated emissions of greenhouse gases such ascarbon dioxide. 正如他在文章中所說，他希望數(shù)據(jù)能說明問題盡管他本人相信氣候變暖是因為人類排放二氧化碳等溫室氣體造成的。 But as the United States bakes in what may turn out to be a record heatwave, he hopes hemight now persuade those for whom global warming is, as it were, on the back burner, toagree that it is real, and to think about the consequences. 但現(xiàn)在，一股或許是有史以來最猛烈的熱浪正在炙烤著美國。他希望他現(xiàn)在能夠說服那些跟過去一樣擱置考慮全球變暖問題的人，使他們認同全球變暖現(xiàn)象的確存在并考慮其后果。 詞語解釋 1.heat up 變熱;加熱 Scientists say continued emissions will cause theplanet to heat up further. 科學(xué)家表示，持續(xù)的排放使地球越來越熱。 Despite the cold weather, you ll still heat up andlose fluids through sweat. 盡管是在冷天里，運動時你仍然在升溫并且通過汗液遺失水分。 2.dry up 枯竭 Emerging economies are usually the first to drop when international capital flows dry up. 當國際資本流動枯竭時，新興經(jīng)濟體往往率先受到?jīng)_擊。 One is listlessness and drift, as discipline crumbles, morale plummets and ideas dry up. 其一是由于紀律瓦解、士氣下降、思想枯竭而引起的遲緩低迷。 3.manage to 達成，設(shè)法 The rest of europe may well manage to muddle through. 而歐洲其余國家也許能很好地設(shè)法渡過此難關(guān)。 So you finally manage to get through everything and start a blog. 你最終設(shè)法應(yīng)付過這一切，并開設(shè)了一個博客。 4.look for 尋找 Look for a second job or odd jobs. 找第二份工作或者做零工。 Always look for ways to improve. 總是尋找不同的方法改進。
2023復(fù)習(xí)正是強化復(fù)習(xí)階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強烈推薦了雜志《經(jīng)濟學(xué)人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Bell weather 呈鐘形曲線變化的天氣 A statistical analysis shows how things really areheating up 一項統(tǒng)計分析顯示出天氣究竟是如何變熱的 ARE heatwaves more common than they used to be? 熱浪來襲真的比以前更加頻繁了嗎? That is the question addressed by James Hansen and his colleagues in a paper just publishedin the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 詹姆斯?jié)h森與他的同事試圖在《美國國家科學(xué)院院報》上發(fā)表的一篇新文章中回答這一問題。 Their conclusion is that theyareand the data they draw on do not even include the current scorcher that is drying upmuch of North America and threatening its harvest. 他們得出的結(jié)論是，情況的確如此，而且得出這一結(jié)論的依據(jù)這還不包括最近北美的酷熱天氣。現(xiàn)在那里的大部分地區(qū)已經(jīng)干旱無比，當?shù)剞r(nóng)作物的收成也因此受到了威脅。 The team s method of presentation, however, has caused a stir among those who feel thatscientific papers should be dispassionate in their delivery of the evidence. 然而，詹姆斯?jié)h森與他的同事所采用的展示方案卻在一群人中引起了騷動。這些人認為科技論文在表述證據(jù)時應(yīng)客觀公正， For the paper, interesting though the evidence it delivers is, is far from dispassionate. 但有意思的是，該文章在表述證據(jù)時卻遠未做到不偏不倚。 Dr Hansen, who is head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, a branch of NASA that isbased in New York, is a polemicist of the risks of man-made global warming. 總部在紐約的戈達德太空研究所是美國國家航空航天局的一個分支部門，該研究所的負責(zé)人漢森博士能言善辯，他聲稱人為因素導(dǎo)致的全球變暖將給人類帶來危害。 Despite his job running a government laboratory, he has managed to get himself arrested onthree occasions for protesting against those he thinks are causing such climate change. 盡管漢森博士主管政府實驗室，他卻參加過抗議活動，以此來反對那些他認為將造成此類氣候變化的行為，而他也因此如愿被警察逮捕過三次。 He clearly states in the paper s introduction that he was looking for a way of conveying hisfears to a sceptical public. 漢森博士在他的文章序言中明確指出，他正在尋找一種方法，以此讓那些對他的觀點持懷疑態(tài)度的公眾體會到他的焦慮。 Some of that scepticism is connected with the fact that although changes in the climate willinevitably result in changes in the weather, ascribing any given eventsuch as a localheatwaveto climate change is impossible. 盡管氣候變化將不可避免地導(dǎo)致天氣變化，但不能將所有特定事件都歸因于氣候變化，而公眾的懷疑態(tài)度中有一部分就與這一事實有關(guān)。 Dr Hansen has therefore tried to go beyond the study of individual causes by demonstratingthat what was once unusual is now common. 因此，漢森博士通過論證過去人們眼中的異常天氣如今已是十分常見，試圖使他的研究不僅僅局限于個別原因。 Longer, hotter summers 夏天愈加漫長炎熱了 To do so, he and his colleagues took 60 years worth of data from the Goddard Institute ssurface air-temperature analysis. 為此，漢森博士與其同事從戈達德研究所收集了60年地表氣溫分析數(shù)據(jù)。 This analysis divides the planet s surface into cells 250km across and records the averagetemperature in each cell. 這些分析材料將地球表面分成了一個個寬250公里的區(qū)塊，并記錄了每個區(qū)域內(nèi)的平均溫度。 The researchers broke their data into six decade-long blocks and compared those blocks statistical properties. 研究者將這些數(shù)據(jù)按十年一組分成了六個時間段，并對這些時間段內(nèi)的統(tǒng)計特性進行了比較。 They looked in particular at the three months which constitute summer in the northernhemisphere. 研究者特別關(guān)注了北半球夏季三個月的溫度。 First, they created a reference value for each cell. 首先，他們計算出了1951年至1980年每一個區(qū)塊夏季三個月的平均溫度， This was its average temperature over those three months from 1951-80. 并將這些數(shù)據(jù)作為每個區(qū)塊的參考值。 Then they calculated how much the temperature in each cell deviated from the cell sreference value in any given summer. 接著，研究者又計算在任意指定的夏季內(nèi)每個區(qū)塊內(nèi)的溫度分別與各自的參考值存在多少偏差。 That done, they plotted a series of curves, one for each decade, that showed how frequentlyeach deviant value occurred. 這一步完成后，他們以十年為單位繪制了六條曲線，這些曲線顯示出了每一個偏差值發(fā)生的頻率。 Since small deviations are common and large ones are rare, the result of plotting data in thisway is a curve shaped somewhat like the cross-section of a bell. 由于小的偏差時有發(fā)生，而大的偏差則較為少見，因此用這一方法對數(shù)據(jù)進行描繪，得出的曲線形狀就像一個鐘的橫截面。 Such distributions can be modelled by a mathematical function known as the normaldistributionor bell curve. 這樣的分布狀態(tài)可以用數(shù)學(xué)上的一個函數(shù)來表示，即正態(tài)分布，又稱鐘形曲線。 Whether based on data or a mathematical ideal, such a curve always has two parameters. 無論是基于數(shù)據(jù)還是理想數(shù)學(xué)模型，鐘形曲線都有兩個參數(shù)。 These are its mean and its standard deviation, which measures how wide the bell is. 一個是平均值，另一個是它的標準差。 The standard deviation is calculated from all of the individual deviations of the data points. 標準差可以通過計算所有數(shù)值的方差得到。 To see what was going on, Dr Hansen superimposed the actual curves for each decade fromthe fifties to the noughties on a normal distribution, which acted as a reference curve. 為了弄清氣候變化，漢森博士以正態(tài)分布曲線為參照曲線，將其與六十年中每十年一條的實際曲線相疊加。 To make all the curves comparable, he expressed the values of the actual deviations asfractions of a standard deviation, and their frequencies as proportions of their total number. 為了使所有這些曲線具有可比性，漢森博士將實際偏差值用其與所屬樣本標準差的比例來衡量，用數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)生偏差數(shù)與數(shù)據(jù)總數(shù)的比例表述其頻率。 As the chart shows, there are two trends. 如圖所示，鐘形曲線表現(xiàn)出了兩種趨勢。 First, the peaks of the data-based curves move right, over time, with respect to thereference curve. In other words, the average temperature is rising. 第一，對照參考曲線，隨著時間的推移，這種數(shù)據(jù)型曲線的峰值會向右移，也就是說地球上的平均溫度在上升。 Second, more recent curves are flatter. 第二，時間距離現(xiàn)在越近，曲線越矮胖， A flatter curve means a bigger standard deviation and a wider spread of results. 這也就意味著標準差越大，溫度數(shù)據(jù)分布越廣。 If the mean of each curve were the same, such flattening would imply both more coldperiods and more hot ones. 如果每一條曲線的平均值相同，那么這種平滑過程也就意味著地球上的寒冷期和炎熱期的出現(xiàn)次數(shù)都會增加。 But because the mean is rising, the effect at the cold end of the curves is diminished, whilethat at the hot end is enhanced. 但由于這些曲線的平均值在增加，因此地球上寒冷期的出現(xiàn)次數(shù)會減少，而炎熱期的出現(xiàn)次數(shù)則會增加。 The upshot is more hot periods of local weather. 最終導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果就是各地出現(xiàn)炎熱天氣的次數(shù)越來越多。 Moreover, the bell-curve method makes it possible to say just how much more hot weatherthere is. 此外，有了鐘形曲線，人們還能判斷炎熱天氣的出現(xiàn)頻率比過去增加了多少。 Dr Hansen defined extreme conditions as those occurring more than three standarddeviations from the mean of his reference curve. 漢森博士下了定義：如果在他的參考曲線中某一數(shù)值偏離其平均值達到或超過三個標準差，那么這就是極端天氣。 In that curve, this would be an eighth of a percent at each end, which is more or less thevalue in the curve for 1951-61. 在參考曲線中，左右兩端數(shù)據(jù)中偏離均值超過三個標準差的極端數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)該恰好分別為0.125%，而1951至1961年這一時間段的極端數(shù)據(jù)分布情況大致上也符合這一特征。 Nowadays, though, extreme conditions can be found at any given time in about 8% of theworld. 但現(xiàn)在世界上約有8%的地區(qū)在特定時間內(nèi)都有極端天氣的出現(xiàn)。 Local weather patterns do, of course, have local causes. To that extent, they areaccidental. 當然，各地天氣模式的出現(xiàn)的確包含著地方性的原因。在這種程度上說，它們的發(fā)生是具有偶然性的。 But Dr Hansen s analysis suggests that claims there is more hot weather around than thereused to be have substance, too. 但漢森博士的分析表明，各地的炎熱天氣的確比以往多這種說法也是有依據(jù)的。 Nothing in his analysis speaks of the cause of that substance. That is deliberate. 但他的分析并沒有涉及到這種依據(jù)的來源，而這也是漢森博士有意為之。 As he says in the paper, he wants the data to speak for themselvesthough he is personallyconvinced that the cause is human-generated emissions of greenhouse gases such ascarbon dioxide. 正如他在文章中所說，他希望數(shù)據(jù)能說明問題盡管他本人相信氣候變暖是因為人類排放二氧化碳等溫室氣體造成的。 But as the United States bakes in what may turn out to be a record heatwave, he hopes hemight now persuade those for whom global warming is, as it were, on the back burner, toagree that it is real, and to think about the consequences. 但現(xiàn)在，一股或許是有史以來最猛烈的熱浪正在炙烤著美國。他希望他現(xiàn)在能夠說服那些跟過去一樣擱置考慮全球變暖問題的人，使他們認同全球變暖現(xiàn)象的確存在并考慮其后果。 詞語解釋 1.heat up 變熱;加熱 Scientists say continued emissions will cause theplanet to heat up further. 科學(xué)家表示，持續(xù)的排放使地球越來越熱。 Despite the cold weather, you ll still heat up andlose fluids through sweat. 盡管是在冷天里，運動時你仍然在升溫并且通過汗液遺失水分。 2.dry up 枯竭 Emerging economies are usually the first to drop when international capital flows dry up. 當國際資本流動枯竭時，新興經(jīng)濟體往往率先受到?jīng)_擊。 One is listlessness and drift, as discipline crumbles, morale plummets and ideas dry up. 其一是由于紀律瓦解、士氣下降、思想枯竭而引起的遲緩低迷。 3.manage to 達成，設(shè)法 The rest of europe may well manage to muddle through. 而歐洲其余國家也許能很好地設(shè)法渡過此難關(guān)。 So you finally manage to get through everything and start a blog. 你最終設(shè)法應(yīng)付過這一切，并開設(shè)了一個博客。 4.look for 尋找 Look for a second job or odd jobs. 找第二份工作或者做零工。 Always look for ways to improve. 總是尋找不同的方法改進。
