2023考研英語(yǔ)閱讀氣候變化與農(nóng)作物
Climate change and crops
氣候變化與農(nóng)作物
Hindering harvests
妨害產(chǎn)量
Changes in the climate are already having an effecton crop yieldsbut not yet a very big one
氣候變化已經(jīng)對(duì)農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量造成影響但是迄今影響不大
May 5th 2011 | from the print edition
THE problems climate change looks likely to bring inthe future may increasingly be visible in the recordsof the past. Not just in the far-off ages of surging sea levels following ice-age thaws, spikes inprehistoric temperatures correlated with natural releases of greenhouse gas and ancientcivilisations brought low by drought, but in records from living memorywhich are based onreliable measurements made at the time. Using such data researchers have now compiled anestimate of global changes in crop yields which can be put down to recent increases intemperature and decreases in rainfall . The bad news is that they find that climate changehas lowered the amount of maize and wheat produced in a given area.The good news is that the effect is so far reasonably small.
冰河融化后的遠(yuǎn)古時(shí)代，海平面急劇上升，由于溫室氣體的自然釋放，氣溫處于史前時(shí)代最高峰，古代文明由于干旱而衰落。在記憶可及的近代，人們根據(jù)可靠的測(cè)量對(duì)氣候變化做了記錄。根據(jù)過去的這些記錄，氣候變化可能造成的影響，在未來也許會(huì)越來越明顯。研究人員利用這些數(shù)據(jù)，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)對(duì)全球農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量的變化做出了估計(jì)。農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量變化的原因可能是近來氣溫的升高和降水的減少。消息有好有壞。壞消息是，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在上述地區(qū)氣候變化使玉米和小麥減產(chǎn)。好消息是，迄今為止氣候變化的影響相當(dāng)小。
David Lobell and Justin Costa-Roberts, of StanfordUniversity, and Wolfram Schlenker, of ColumbiaUniversity, first put together temperature andprecipitation figures for the parts of the worldwhere four staple cropswheat, maize, rice andsoyaare grown. Those four crops, between them,account for about 75% of the calories people end upeating, although a lot of the soya is fed to animalsfirst.
斯坦福大學(xué)的戴維德?羅拜耳、扎斯汀?考斯特-羅伯特和加利福尼亞大學(xué)的沃爾夫然姆?史靈克，首次將世界上以小麥、玉米、稻子和大豆作為主要農(nóng)作物的部分地區(qū)的氣溫和降水量結(jié)合在一起。他們共同研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，盡管很多大豆首先被用來喂牲畜，但人們最終所吃的熱量有75%是這四種作物提供的。
It turns out that during the seasons in which crops grow, these arable areas had on averagebecome significantly warmer in the 29 years after 1979. Some bits of Europe that grow wheat,for example, have heated up by a couple of degrees since 1980. The researchers thenassembled models of how the yields changed from year to year, and against the longer trend,to find changes linked to temperature and rainfall that are independent of improvementsthrough better farming. Finally they compared todays yields with what their models say yieldswould have been with todays farming but in the 1980s climate.
研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，從1979年以后的29年里，在農(nóng)作物的生長(zhǎng)季節(jié)，這些可耕作面積的氣溫普遍越來越暖。例如，自1980 年起，一些種植小麥的歐洲地區(qū)氣溫上升了兩度。為了發(fā)現(xiàn)與氣溫和降水有關(guān)的產(chǎn)量變化，并且是不依賴于農(nóng)耕方法的改進(jìn)引起的變化，研究人員接著建立了產(chǎn)量逐年同比變化的模型，并與更長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)相對(duì)照。模型顯示，產(chǎn)量變化除了1980年與氣候變化有關(guān)外，可能與現(xiàn)在的耕作方法有關(guān)。最后，他們將現(xiàn)在的產(chǎn)量與模型顯示的產(chǎn)量相對(duì)照。
Popping corn
夸大得象爆玉米花
For both wheat and maize, the results, published this week by Science, were negative.Globally, wheat yields are down 5.5% compared with what they would have been with noclimate change, and maize yields are down 3.8%. For soya, some places saw improvements,some saw damage, with no real net effect on the global scale. For rice, warming brought aclear benefit for crops at higher latitudes and some losses in warmer places. Temperatureplayed a bigger role than precipitation. The results seem to fit with previous studies into sucheffects in individual countries.
研究發(fā)表在本周的《科學(xué)》雜志上，對(duì)小麥和玉米來說，結(jié)果是否定的。在全球范圍內(nèi)，與沒有氣候變化的條件下相比較，小麥產(chǎn)量下降5.5%，玉米產(chǎn)量下降 3.8%。大豆則某些地方增產(chǎn)，某些地方減產(chǎn)，沒有真正相同的全球范圍的影響。對(duì)稻子來說，氣溫變化對(duì)較高維度地區(qū)明顯有益，而對(duì)較溫和的某些地區(qū)則有損害。氣溫比降水造成的影響更大。這一結(jié)果似乎符合以前做過的關(guān)于在單個(gè)國(guó)家里這種影響的研究。
But there are caveats. For example, the analysisdoes not track changes over time in the areas beingfarmed, using instead a crop map from around 2000.And many agronomists hold that relying on year-to-year yield changes for modelling exaggerates thedamage due to longer climate shifts. Farmers willtend to adapt. That said, subtler effects of climatechange such as more sudden rains and particularlyhot days with disproportionate effects on yield areleft out, which might mean the study underestimatesthe effects.
但是需要做一些說明。例如，這一分析沒有追蹤現(xiàn)已被耕種地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量隨時(shí)間的變化，反而使用的是2000年前后的作物分布圖。很多農(nóng)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，依靠逐年同比的產(chǎn)量變化建模，夸大了較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間氣候變化引起的損害。那樣農(nóng)民將會(huì)適應(yīng)。這說明，諸如較為突然地降雨等氣候變化的較微弱的影響，和特別熱的天氣對(duì)產(chǎn)量的很大的影響被忽視，這可能意味著研究低估了影響。
Some people will be surprised, even dismayed, that comparatively modest climate changes arealready doing measurable damage. But in context, it is quite small. Yields have been going uparound the world despite the warming climateand over 29 years those increases swamp theestimated global reductions due to climate. The sort of loss that climate change inflicts in adecade is often the sort of gain that better farming brings in a year. What is more, for wheatthe increasing level of carbon dioxide that is changing the climate also makes photosynthesiseasier, which should have increased yields enough to wipe out perhaps half of the climate-related loss .
有些人將感到吃驚甚至驚愕，因?yàn)椴惶蟮臍夂蜃兓呀?jīng)造成了重大的損害。但是在上文中，這種損害相當(dāng)小。盡管氣候變暖，但世界各地的農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量一直在增加而且29年來的這種增產(chǎn)超過了估計(jì)的由于氣候變化造成的全球減產(chǎn)。十年里氣候變化造成的減產(chǎn)，經(jīng)常與一年里由于耕種技術(shù)改進(jìn)帶來的增產(chǎn)相等。而且，對(duì)小麥來講，一直影響氣候的CO2的含量增加也使光合作用更為容易，這將使產(chǎn)量增加到足以抵消大約一半的與氣候有關(guān)的損失。
Then there is a point made by Richard Tol of VU University Amsterdam: farm yields show theworst of the situation. Easily achievable improvements in roads, markets and other things canincrease the availability of food a lot even if farm yields stop rising. And people can adapt, atleast to lowish levels of change; indeed the study provides evidence to help them do so as itshows which crops in a given country are the most affected by global warming. So Malthuslooks beatable even when he sits astride the apocalyptic horse of climate change.
接著阿姆斯特丹自由大學(xué)的理查德?套耳指出一個(gè)要點(diǎn)：農(nóng)作產(chǎn)量指示著最壞的情形。即使農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量停止增長(zhǎng)，在公路、市場(chǎng)和其它方面容易取得改進(jìn)能夠使食物的有效利用大大增加。而且人們至少能夠適應(yīng)相當(dāng)小的變化;的確，當(dāng)研究表明在一個(gè)被考察的國(guó)家里哪一種農(nóng)作物受全球升溫影響最大時(shí)，研究提供的證據(jù)有助于人們?nèi)ミm應(yīng)。因此即使馬爾薩斯騎在預(yù)示氣候變化大災(zāi)難的高頭大馬上時(shí)，看起來他也被擊敗了。
Climate change and crops
氣候變化與農(nóng)作物
Hindering harvests
妨害產(chǎn)量
Changes in the climate are already having an effecton crop yieldsbut not yet a very big one
氣候變化已經(jīng)對(duì)農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量造成影響但是迄今影響不大
May 5th 2011 | from the print edition
THE problems climate change looks likely to bring inthe future may increasingly be visible in the recordsof the past. Not just in the far-off ages of surging sea levels following ice-age thaws, spikes inprehistoric temperatures correlated with natural releases of greenhouse gas and ancientcivilisations brought low by drought, but in records from living memorywhich are based onreliable measurements made at the time. Using such data researchers have now compiled anestimate of global changes in crop yields which can be put down to recent increases intemperature and decreases in rainfall . The bad news is that they find that climate changehas lowered the amount of maize and wheat produced in a given area.The good news is that the effect is so far reasonably small.
冰河融化后的遠(yuǎn)古時(shí)代，海平面急劇上升，由于溫室氣體的自然釋放，氣溫處于史前時(shí)代最高峰，古代文明由于干旱而衰落。在記憶可及的近代，人們根據(jù)可靠的測(cè)量對(duì)氣候變化做了記錄。根據(jù)過去的這些記錄，氣候變化可能造成的影響，在未來也許會(huì)越來越明顯。研究人員利用這些數(shù)據(jù)，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)對(duì)全球農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量的變化做出了估計(jì)。農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量變化的原因可能是近來氣溫的升高和降水的減少。消息有好有壞。壞消息是，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在上述地區(qū)氣候變化使玉米和小麥減產(chǎn)。好消息是，迄今為止氣候變化的影響相當(dāng)小。
David Lobell and Justin Costa-Roberts, of StanfordUniversity, and Wolfram Schlenker, of ColumbiaUniversity, first put together temperature andprecipitation figures for the parts of the worldwhere four staple cropswheat, maize, rice andsoyaare grown. Those four crops, between them,account for about 75% of the calories people end upeating, although a lot of the soya is fed to animalsfirst.
斯坦福大學(xué)的戴維德?羅拜耳、扎斯汀?考斯特-羅伯特和加利福尼亞大學(xué)的沃爾夫然姆?史靈克，首次將世界上以小麥、玉米、稻子和大豆作為主要農(nóng)作物的部分地區(qū)的氣溫和降水量結(jié)合在一起。他們共同研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，盡管很多大豆首先被用來喂牲畜，但人們最終所吃的熱量有75%是這四種作物提供的。
It turns out that during the seasons in which crops grow, these arable areas had on averagebecome significantly warmer in the 29 years after 1979. Some bits of Europe that grow wheat,for example, have heated up by a couple of degrees since 1980. The researchers thenassembled models of how the yields changed from year to year, and against the longer trend,to find changes linked to temperature and rainfall that are independent of improvementsthrough better farming. Finally they compared todays yields with what their models say yieldswould have been with todays farming but in the 1980s climate.
研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，從1979年以后的29年里，在農(nóng)作物的生長(zhǎng)季節(jié)，這些可耕作面積的氣溫普遍越來越暖。例如，自1980 年起，一些種植小麥的歐洲地區(qū)氣溫上升了兩度。為了發(fā)現(xiàn)與氣溫和降水有關(guān)的產(chǎn)量變化，并且是不依賴于農(nóng)耕方法的改進(jìn)引起的變化，研究人員接著建立了產(chǎn)量逐年同比變化的模型，并與更長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)相對(duì)照。模型顯示，產(chǎn)量變化除了1980年與氣候變化有關(guān)外，可能與現(xiàn)在的耕作方法有關(guān)。最后，他們將現(xiàn)在的產(chǎn)量與模型顯示的產(chǎn)量相對(duì)照。
Popping corn
夸大得象爆玉米花
For both wheat and maize, the results, published this week by Science, were negative.Globally, wheat yields are down 5.5% compared with what they would have been with noclimate change, and maize yields are down 3.8%. For soya, some places saw improvements,some saw damage, with no real net effect on the global scale. For rice, warming brought aclear benefit for crops at higher latitudes and some losses in warmer places. Temperatureplayed a bigger role than precipitation. The results seem to fit with previous studies into sucheffects in individual countries.
研究發(fā)表在本周的《科學(xué)》雜志上，對(duì)小麥和玉米來說，結(jié)果是否定的。在全球范圍內(nèi)，與沒有氣候變化的條件下相比較，小麥產(chǎn)量下降5.5%，玉米產(chǎn)量下降 3.8%。大豆則某些地方增產(chǎn)，某些地方減產(chǎn)，沒有真正相同的全球范圍的影響。對(duì)稻子來說，氣溫變化對(duì)較高維度地區(qū)明顯有益，而對(duì)較溫和的某些地區(qū)則有損害。氣溫比降水造成的影響更大。這一結(jié)果似乎符合以前做過的關(guān)于在單個(gè)國(guó)家里這種影響的研究。
But there are caveats. For example, the analysisdoes not track changes over time in the areas beingfarmed, using instead a crop map from around 2000.And many agronomists hold that relying on year-to-year yield changes for modelling exaggerates thedamage due to longer climate shifts. Farmers willtend to adapt. That said, subtler effects of climatechange such as more sudden rains and particularlyhot days with disproportionate effects on yield areleft out, which might mean the study underestimatesthe effects.
但是需要做一些說明。例如，這一分析沒有追蹤現(xiàn)已被耕種地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量隨時(shí)間的變化，反而使用的是2000年前后的作物分布圖。很多農(nóng)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，依靠逐年同比的產(chǎn)量變化建模，夸大了較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間氣候變化引起的損害。那樣農(nóng)民將會(huì)適應(yīng)。這說明，諸如較為突然地降雨等氣候變化的較微弱的影響，和特別熱的天氣對(duì)產(chǎn)量的很大的影響被忽視，這可能意味著研究低估了影響。
Some people will be surprised, even dismayed, that comparatively modest climate changes arealready doing measurable damage. But in context, it is quite small. Yields have been going uparound the world despite the warming climateand over 29 years those increases swamp theestimated global reductions due to climate. The sort of loss that climate change inflicts in adecade is often the sort of gain that better farming brings in a year. What is more, for wheatthe increasing level of carbon dioxide that is changing the climate also makes photosynthesiseasier, which should have increased yields enough to wipe out perhaps half of the climate-related loss .
有些人將感到吃驚甚至驚愕，因?yàn)椴惶蟮臍夂蜃兓呀?jīng)造成了重大的損害。但是在上文中，這種損害相當(dāng)小。盡管氣候變暖，但世界各地的農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量一直在增加而且29年來的這種增產(chǎn)超過了估計(jì)的由于氣候變化造成的全球減產(chǎn)。十年里氣候變化造成的減產(chǎn)，經(jīng)常與一年里由于耕種技術(shù)改進(jìn)帶來的增產(chǎn)相等。而且，對(duì)小麥來講，一直影響氣候的CO2的含量增加也使光合作用更為容易，這將使產(chǎn)量增加到足以抵消大約一半的與氣候有關(guān)的損失。
Then there is a point made by Richard Tol of VU University Amsterdam: farm yields show theworst of the situation. Easily achievable improvements in roads, markets and other things canincrease the availability of food a lot even if farm yields stop rising. And people can adapt, atleast to lowish levels of change; indeed the study provides evidence to help them do so as itshows which crops in a given country are the most affected by global warming. So Malthuslooks beatable even when he sits astride the apocalyptic horse of climate change.
接著阿姆斯特丹自由大學(xué)的理查德?套耳指出一個(gè)要點(diǎn)：農(nóng)作產(chǎn)量指示著最壞的情形。即使農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量停止增長(zhǎng)，在公路、市場(chǎng)和其它方面容易取得改進(jìn)能夠使食物的有效利用大大增加。而且人們至少能夠適應(yīng)相當(dāng)小的變化;的確，當(dāng)研究表明在一個(gè)被考察的國(guó)家里哪一種農(nóng)作物受全球升溫影響最大時(shí)，研究提供的證據(jù)有助于人們?nèi)ミm應(yīng)。因此即使馬爾薩斯騎在預(yù)示氣候變化大災(zāi)難的高頭大馬上時(shí)，看起來他也被擊敗了。
