2023考研英語閱讀看住錢包
Watch your wallets: the baby-boomers are beginningto retire
看住錢包：生育高峰期的一代人正在退休
WHEN MOST LABOUR was agricultural, peoplegenerally toiled in the fields until they dropped. Theidea of formal retirement did not become feasibleuntil work moved from farms to factories. In 1889Otto von Bismarck[1] famously introduced theworlds first pension scheme inGermany. In the 20th century, when universal suffrage became widespread, a period ofretirement after work was seen as a mark of a civilised social democracy.
過去，大多數勞力只是下田干活，直到再也干不動，才結束在土地上辛勤的勞作。自勞動從牧場轉到工廠開始，正式退休這個概念才被廣為流傳。1889年，俾斯麥首次在德國實施第一個養老金方案。20世紀，選舉逐漸開始普及，離職后如果能享有一段退休時間，是一個國家文明民主的象征。
After the second world war pension provision increased markedly, but the number of elderlypeople was still quite small. In the 1970s and 1980s caring for them seemed easily affordable.Many countries even reduced their retirement ages.
第二次世界大戰之后，養老金大幅增漲，而老年人的數量仍舊較少。20世紀70年代和80年代之間，負擔照管老年人的費用似乎是件很容易的事情。很多國家甚至降低了退休年齡。
The demographic picture looks different now that the baby-boomers are starting to retire. In1950 there were 7.2 people aged 20-64 for every person of 65 and more in the OECD. By 1980the ratio had dropped to 5.1. Now it is around 4.1, and by 2050 it will be just 2.1. In short,every couple will be supporting a pensioner.
但是現在情況有所不同，從統計圖表來看，生育高峰期的一代人開始逐漸退休。1950年，在世界經濟與合作組織成員國里，年齡在20-64歲間的人與65歲及65歲以上的老年人的比例為7.2。在1980 年，該比例降低為5.1，現在將近4.1，到2050年，這個數字僅僅是2.1。簡單來說，就是每對夫婦需資助一位養老金領取人。
Europe and Japan are facing the biggest problems.The average dependency ratio in the EuropeanUnion is already down to 3.5, and is heading for 1.8by 2050. In Italy it is forecast to be nearly 1.5 andin Germany nearly 1.6 by then. Japan is on track fora startling 1.2. Since the average pensionercurrently draws a total of about 60% of medianearnings, from government and private sources, thesystem is likely to become unaffordable. In a sense,it does not matter how the benefits are paid for. Ifthey are unfunded, they come from workers taxes;if funded, they come from investment income. But the income has to be generated by someone.
歐洲和日本面臨的形勢最為嚴峻。歐洲國家的比例已經降至3.5，逐漸向2050年的1.8邁進。到那時，預計意大利的比例將接近1.5，德國將是1.6左右，日本更向驚人的1.2挺進。當前，養老金是政府和個人提供的，平均每位養老金領取者大約拿到中等收入個人60% 的薪資，養老體制很可能將承擔不起。從某種意義上來說，問題并不在于如何繳納養老金。如果沒有籌措到資金，將由納稅人承擔;如果籌措到資金，將由投資處承擔，只是資金必須有人來提供。
There are ways of reducing the burden. The current generation of workers could save morenow. If they put more money into funded pension schemes, the extra saving might encouragemore investment and thus boost economic growth. A wealthier society would find it easier toafford paying pensions. Countries with PAYG schemes could raise taxes now, reducing thedeficit and thus the debt burden on the younger generations.
減輕負擔的方式有很多種。這代工薪階層可以從現在開始攢錢。如果他們向養老保險基金投入更多的錢，那么這將鼓勵他們將多余的積蓄進行更多的投資，從而刺激經濟增長。社會越富裕，支付養老保險的費用才會更容易。在現收現付制的國家雖然現今可以通過增加稅收來減少赤字，這便將負擔轉移在年輕人身上。
We want it now我們現在就要
But more savings or higher taxation now would require those currently at work to deferconsumption. They may not be willing to do so. And given the weakness of developedeconomies in the wake of the financial crisis, governments may not want to see consumption godown in the immediate future.
但是，現在更多的攢錢或者增稅使得正在工作的工薪階層的消費延遲，而且他們也不樂意這樣。考慮到金融危機后發達國家經濟的弱勢，政府估計也不愿意在不遠的將來看到消費水平的下降。
In the OECD public spending on pensions benefits has been growing faster than nationaloutput, rising from 6.1% of GDP in 1990 to 7% in 2007. It is forecast to reach 11.4% of GDPby 2050. Those forecasts already take into account the planned rise in retirement ages and alikely drop in replacement ratios and thus assume that voters will approve of pension reformeven as the baby-boomers become a potentially powerful voting block of retired people.
世界經濟與合作組織在養老保險上的公共花費的增長比全國產出量增長都快，從1990年占GDP的6.1%增長到2007年的7%，預計到2050將占到GDP的11.4%，預測報告已經將計劃提高退休年齡以及新老人員更替比例下降都考慮進去了，雖然生育高峰期的退休人員將成為選舉中潛在的阻礙力量，但是選民還是很可能會通過養老改革的議題。
But that assumption may not be safe. Turnout in elections tends to be higher among theelderly than among the young. As Neil Howe and Richard Jackson of the Centre for Strategicand International Studies in Washington, DC, have written: In the 2023s young people indeveloped countries will have the future on their side. Elders will have the votes on theirs.
但是這種假設不是一定的。參加選舉的人中，一般老年人會比青年人多。位于華盛頓的戰略國際研究中心NeilHowe和Richard Jackson曾寫道：21世紀20年代，發達國家的未來當然總是年輕人的，但是，選票卻握在老年人手中。
Watch your wallets: the baby-boomers are beginningto retire
看住錢包：生育高峰期的一代人正在退休
WHEN MOST LABOUR was agricultural, peoplegenerally toiled in the fields until they dropped. Theidea of formal retirement did not become feasibleuntil work moved from farms to factories. In 1889Otto von Bismarck[1] famously introduced theworlds first pension scheme inGermany. In the 20th century, when universal suffrage became widespread, a period ofretirement after work was seen as a mark of a civilised social democracy.
過去，大多數勞力只是下田干活，直到再也干不動，才結束在土地上辛勤的勞作。自勞動從牧場轉到工廠開始，正式退休這個概念才被廣為流傳。1889年，俾斯麥首次在德國實施第一個養老金方案。20世紀，選舉逐漸開始普及，離職后如果能享有一段退休時間，是一個國家文明民主的象征。
After the second world war pension provision increased markedly, but the number of elderlypeople was still quite small. In the 1970s and 1980s caring for them seemed easily affordable.Many countries even reduced their retirement ages.
第二次世界大戰之后，養老金大幅增漲，而老年人的數量仍舊較少。20世紀70年代和80年代之間，負擔照管老年人的費用似乎是件很容易的事情。很多國家甚至降低了退休年齡。
The demographic picture looks different now that the baby-boomers are starting to retire. In1950 there were 7.2 people aged 20-64 for every person of 65 and more in the OECD. By 1980the ratio had dropped to 5.1. Now it is around 4.1, and by 2050 it will be just 2.1. In short,every couple will be supporting a pensioner.
但是現在情況有所不同，從統計圖表來看，生育高峰期的一代人開始逐漸退休。1950年，在世界經濟與合作組織成員國里，年齡在20-64歲間的人與65歲及65歲以上的老年人的比例為7.2。在1980 年，該比例降低為5.1，現在將近4.1，到2050年，這個數字僅僅是2.1。簡單來說，就是每對夫婦需資助一位養老金領取人。
Europe and Japan are facing the biggest problems.The average dependency ratio in the EuropeanUnion is already down to 3.5, and is heading for 1.8by 2050. In Italy it is forecast to be nearly 1.5 andin Germany nearly 1.6 by then. Japan is on track fora startling 1.2. Since the average pensionercurrently draws a total of about 60% of medianearnings, from government and private sources, thesystem is likely to become unaffordable. In a sense,it does not matter how the benefits are paid for. Ifthey are unfunded, they come from workers taxes;if funded, they come from investment income. But the income has to be generated by someone.
歐洲和日本面臨的形勢最為嚴峻。歐洲國家的比例已經降至3.5，逐漸向2050年的1.8邁進。到那時，預計意大利的比例將接近1.5，德國將是1.6左右，日本更向驚人的1.2挺進。當前，養老金是政府和個人提供的，平均每位養老金領取者大約拿到中等收入個人60% 的薪資，養老體制很可能將承擔不起。從某種意義上來說，問題并不在于如何繳納養老金。如果沒有籌措到資金，將由納稅人承擔;如果籌措到資金，將由投資處承擔，只是資金必須有人來提供。
There are ways of reducing the burden. The current generation of workers could save morenow. If they put more money into funded pension schemes, the extra saving might encouragemore investment and thus boost economic growth. A wealthier society would find it easier toafford paying pensions. Countries with PAYG schemes could raise taxes now, reducing thedeficit and thus the debt burden on the younger generations.
減輕負擔的方式有很多種。這代工薪階層可以從現在開始攢錢。如果他們向養老保險基金投入更多的錢，那么這將鼓勵他們將多余的積蓄進行更多的投資，從而刺激經濟增長。社會越富裕，支付養老保險的費用才會更容易。在現收現付制的國家雖然現今可以通過增加稅收來減少赤字，這便將負擔轉移在年輕人身上。
We want it now我們現在就要
But more savings or higher taxation now would require those currently at work to deferconsumption. They may not be willing to do so. And given the weakness of developedeconomies in the wake of the financial crisis, governments may not want to see consumption godown in the immediate future.
但是，現在更多的攢錢或者增稅使得正在工作的工薪階層的消費延遲，而且他們也不樂意這樣。考慮到金融危機后發達國家經濟的弱勢，政府估計也不愿意在不遠的將來看到消費水平的下降。
In the OECD public spending on pensions benefits has been growing faster than nationaloutput, rising from 6.1% of GDP in 1990 to 7% in 2007. It is forecast to reach 11.4% of GDPby 2050. Those forecasts already take into account the planned rise in retirement ages and alikely drop in replacement ratios and thus assume that voters will approve of pension reformeven as the baby-boomers become a potentially powerful voting block of retired people.
世界經濟與合作組織在養老保險上的公共花費的增長比全國產出量增長都快，從1990年占GDP的6.1%增長到2007年的7%，預計到2050將占到GDP的11.4%，預測報告已經將計劃提高退休年齡以及新老人員更替比例下降都考慮進去了，雖然生育高峰期的退休人員將成為選舉中潛在的阻礙力量，但是選民還是很可能會通過養老改革的議題。
But that assumption may not be safe. Turnout in elections tends to be higher among theelderly than among the young. As Neil Howe and Richard Jackson of the Centre for Strategicand International Studies in Washington, DC, have written: In the 2023s young people indeveloped countries will have the future on their side. Elders will have the votes on theirs.
但是這種假設不是一定的。參加選舉的人中，一般老年人會比青年人多。位于華盛頓的戰略國際研究中心NeilHowe和Richard Jackson曾寫道：21世紀20年代，發達國家的未來當然總是年輕人的，但是，選票卻握在老年人手中。
